Market Overview: U.S. stock futures saw a slight increase on Monday, recovering from last week’s selloff. The market’s upward movement, however, remains cautious amid escalating tensions in the Middle East following Iran’s recent drone and missile attacks on Israel. Despite these geopolitical risks, President Joe Biden assured Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the U.S. would not join a counter-offensive, helping to cap broader market fears.
Corporate and Economic Highlights: As the quarterly earnings season progresses, investors are gearing up for key disclosures, with Goldman Sachs’ results highly anticipated. Additionally, March’s retail sales figures are expected to be a significant focal point for economic data this week.
Telecom Sector Shifts: In the technology sector, Apple has relinquished its title as the world’s leading phone manufacturer to Samsung, according to the latest data from IDC. The shift occurred after Apple’s smartphone shipments fell by about 10% in the first quarter, even as global shipments rose by 7.8%. Samsung now leads with a 20.8% market share, followed by Apple at 17.3%, and Xiaomi holding 14.1%.
Tesla’s Corporate Struggles: Tesla is reportedly facing potential large-scale layoffs due to declining sales and heightened competition, especially from China. Business Insider and Electrek suggest that job cuts could be announced soon, possibly affecting up to 20% of its workforce. This news comes on the heels of Tesla setting lower production targets for 2024 and uncertainty over its plans for a low-cost electric vehicle.
Energy Market Reactions: In the commodities market, crude oil prices have declined as the immediate impact of Iran’s attack on Israel was less severe than feared, reducing concerns of a broader regional conflict that could disrupt oil supplies. Analysts now focus on Israel’s next steps, which will be critical in shaping future market dynamics. Despite the geopolitical tensions, Iran’s significant role in OPEC continues to influence global oil supply considerations.
As the week unfolds, market participants will closely monitor these developments, balancing corporate earnings results and economic data against ongoing geopolitical tensions that could influence global market trends.
SPX/SPY- Sellers continued to press below 5250 this past week, with a clear near-term downtrend as the primary structure at play. ES closed the week near the lows, with a weekly low of 5150, which is the final downside level of interest that was shared in last week’s note. This move triggered a break of the prior range, with price now showing 2 consecutive weeks lower. Does that mean sellers are back in control?
For the week ahead, the main focus will be on whether sellers can maintain the directional move lower. More specifically, if sellers can show acceptance below 5195, it will suggest the directional move is not yet complete. Continued weakness below 5195 would target support at 5125, 5100, and 5050. A break above 5195 that holds would indicate a failed breakdown and price would target 5250 and 5275.
Upside levels of interest: 5195, 5250, 5275
Downside levels of interest: 5125, 5110, 5050
Notable Economic Data
- Monday: Retail Sales
- Wednesday: 20Y Auction, Fed’s Beige Book
- Thursday: Jobless Claims
Notable Earnings
- Monday: GS
- Tuesday: BAC, MS, UAL
- Thursday: TSM, NFLX
$TSLA-Â Tesla has reduced the subscription price for its Full Self-Driving driver-assist software to $99 from $199 per month in the U.S., the company announced in a post on X.
$CRM-Â Oppenheimer analyst Brian Schwartz notes that Reuters reported that Salesforce (CRM) is considering acquiring Informatica (INFA) for potentially a below market valuation. While investors will likely be disappointed that management is considering large company M&A after frustration regarding the high premium to acquire Slack and dispelling interest in pursuing material M&A last year, in Oppenheimer’s view, adding Informatica would be strategic and value added to all Salesforce’s Clouds, especially Data Cloud and platform businesses. Salesforce’s market workflows are time-consuming and manual, requiring updating records and exchanging spreadsheets, and pairing Informatica with Salesforce will help organizations improve business processes and data quality/management, and save money by maintaining records, service needs, and running AI workflows in real-time, says the firm. It’s also defensive since it improves Salesforce’s weakness in data integration versus ServiceNow (NOW) and Microsoft (MSFT). Oppenheimer has an Outperform rating on Salesforce with a price target of $325.
$NFLX- Dan Lin became film studio chief on April 1 and has already been making changes, including laying off around 15 people in the creative film executive group, reorganizing the film department by genre, and implicating the platform will no longer be the home of expensive action flicks starring big movie stars, Nicole Sperling of The New York Times reports. Instead, Lin will have the company focus on improving the quality of its movies and produce a wider spectrum of films to appeal to the varied interests of its 260M subscribers.
$MSFT- BMO Capital raised the firm’s price target on Microsoft to $465 from $455 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm is citing its increased conviction in the company’s consolidated durable growth potential, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Microsoft is also well positioned in the gaming market, particularly since its leading content and scale are sources of competitive advantage, BMO added.
Hey OP…. Hope you enjoyed your weekend. Today’s pop may be just a fake so I would be wary. Protect your portfolio as things can become more dicey these next couple days. I’ll be looking for a drop in AAPL to buy long if we see a major drop. Patience PAYS! See you in chat
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