{ “MODIFIED_CONTENT”: ”
1. U.S. Stock Futures
U.S. stock futures edged lower on Monday, starting a week full of significant events including key inflation data, testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and the beginning of the quarterly earnings season. The S&P 500 index recorded its fourth positive week in the last five, driven by optimism that cooling inflation and a slowing economy might lead to a Federal Reserve interest rate cut later this year.
Key events to watch this week include:
- June Consumer Price Index: Released on Thursday, this data will provide insights into inflation trends.
- Jerome Powell’s Testimony: Powell will address both the Senate and House, offering clues on future monetary policy.
- Earnings Season Kickoff: Major banks like Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase will release their results, along with PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines
2. Skydance and Paramount Global Merger
Skydance Media and Paramount Global have agreed to merge, concluding months of speculation. Paramount’s class A stockholders will receive $23 per share, while class B shareholders will get $15 per share. The deal, valued at over $8 billion, includes a $4.2 billion investment in Paramount by the Ellison Family and Redbird Capital.
Key points of the merger:
- New Leadership: Skydance’s David Ellison will serve as chairman and CEO, with former NBC Universal CEO Jeff Shell as president.
- Strategic Assets: Skydance will gain access to Paramount’s studio assets, streaming service Paramount+, and channels like Nickelodeon, MTV, and Comedy Central.
3. Boeing Pleads Guilty
Boeing has agreed to plead guilty to a criminal fraud conspiracy charge related to two 737 MAX fatal crashes. The deal includes a $243.6 million fine and will label Boeing as a convicted felon, potentially complicating future government contracts. However, it avoids a costly trial and may facilitate Boeing’s planned acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems
4. Political Shifts in France
The leftwing New Popular Front has emerged as the dominant force in France’s National Assembly following the parliamentary elections. This shift blocks the far-right National Rally from gaining power, leading to a fragmented parliament and potential political instability in France, the eurozone’s second-largest economy.
5. Crude Oil Prices
Crude prices slipped lower on Monday, easing from gains over the past four weeks due to reducing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. U.S. crude futures fell 0.7% to $82.57 a barrel, while Brent dropped 0.6% to $86.03 a barrel. Talks mediated by Qatar and Egypt for a ceasefire in Gaza, and concerns over Hurricane Beryl affecting Texas oil exports, are factors to watch.
Reminder: Don’t forget to join this week’s live market analysis session, where we will discuss these developments in detail. The session announcement will be made soon, so stay tuned!
SPY/SPX- last week the watch was to continue to be how price trades versus the current range, which is 5520×5585. The main level of interest for the week will again be 5520. If price can continue to defend this area of support, it will target 5555, 5585, and 5600.”
For this week, the main watch is whether buyers can sustain the directional move away from the prior 2-week range. The most bullish scenario would be price showing acceptance of these higher levels, with no interest in retesting the prior breakout point. The main level of interest for the week is 5585, which signifies the 2-week range high and breakout point. If price can continue to sustain above 5585, it would target 5640, 5695, and 5750. If price breaks and holds below 5585, it would indicate a failed breakoutand price would target 5555 and 5520.
Upside levels of interest: 5640, 5695, 5750
Downside levels of interest: 5585, 5555, 5520
Notable Economic Data
- All week: Fed Speak 🗣️
- Thursday: CPI, Jobless claims
- Friday: PPI, Michigan Consumer Sentiment
TSLA- WATCH for possible breakout above 261.6
RALLIES/PULLBACKS** Current price area
Typical: 29.97 pts (11.9%) occurs 25% of the time.
Extreme: 38.97 pts (15.5%) occurs 5% of the time.
Short term extreme rally, expect rally to pause/stop.[Positioning]
Extreme Overbought, odds definitely favor short trades.
The latest short interest in Tesla (TSLA) stock stands at approximately 102.3 million shares, which represents about 3.69% of the float. The short interest ratio, which is the number of days it would take for short sellers to cover their positions based on average daily trading volume, is currently at 1 day
TARGET 1
Price: 204.78 Profit: 18.6%(Typical pullback)
Cover/Trailing Cover: 259.77 Loss: 3.3%
P/L Ratio: 5.6 : 1 – Excellent
PANW-
News that Pelosi and other congressional members taking cybersecurity plays.
Intermediate trend bullish, Uptrend.[Timing]
Mild bullish 3 day candlestick pattern.
RALLIES/PULLBACKS** Current price area
Typical: 33.63 pts (9.8%) occurs 25% of the time.
Extreme: 43.71 pts (12.8%) occurs 5% of the time.
Price: 361.73 Profit: 5.7%
P/L Ratio: 2.5 : 1 – Good Risk Reward with Pelosi News
PLTR-
CONFIRMED breakout above 26.69
, no resistance in area just above.
excessive up from yesterday’s close, expect to pause/stop.
46.7mil shares, -5.9% compared to typical daily volume over the past 6 months.
Strong bullish 3 day candlestick pattern.[Timing] Good bullish 1 day moneyflow1 Day Price change extreme up, may pause/reverse[Positioning] Short term strong rally, rally may start to slow.[Positioning] Extreme Overbought, odds definitely favor short trades.
SBUX-
At major support
9.66mil shares, +0.2% compared to typical daily volume over the past 6 months.
Good Neutral 1 day moneyflow
DIS-
8.55mil shares, -20.8% compared to typical daily volume over the past 6 months.
Typical: 7.05 pts (7.2%) occurs 25% of the time.
Extreme: 9.16 pts (9.3%) occurs 5% of the time.
Currently at support[Timing]
Mild bullish 3 day candlestick pattern.
Near Oversold, odds slightly favor long trades.
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