OP Wire 3/17 (OP – Lite)

By Steve

Good morning, OP traders! U.S. stock futures are in the red this morning as concerns over trade tariffs and economic uncertainty continue to pressure markets.

Futures Overview

Dow Jones Futures: -103 points (-0.3%)
S&P 500 Futures: -11 points (-0.2%)
Nasdaq 100 Futures: -25 points (-0.1%)

After a rough week where the Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered its biggest one-week drop since 2023 (-4.4%), markets remain on edge. The NASDAQ Composite extended its correction, while the S&P 500 briefly dipped into correction territory.

More downside is expected today, especially after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated in an NBC interview Sunday that there are “no guarantees” the U.S. will avoid a recession this year—echoing comments made by President Trump just last week.

Key Focus: Fed Meeting & Economic Data

All eyes are on the Federal Reserve meeting this week, where the central bank is widely expected to keep rates unchanged. However, traders are watching closely for any hints of a policy shift, especially with inflation still resilient and economic data showing signs of a slowdown.

Trump’s inconsistent stance on trade tariffs has only added to market volatility. His latest threats against European tariffs are a major risk, with the American Chamber of Commerce to the EU warning that a potential U.S.-Europe trade war could put $9.5 trillion in transatlantic business at risk.

In addition, today’s retail sales report for February will offer insight into consumer strength. Analysts expect a 0.6% rebound after January’s sharp 0.9% drop—but sentiment remains weak, as many consumers worry about the financial impact of new tariffs.

Market Movers: Oil, Tariffs & Geopolitics

Oil prices are climbing after U.S. military strikes on Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who have repeatedly targeted commercial shipping in the Red Sea—a route that handles 15% of global trade.

Brent crude: +1.3% to $71.49
WTI crude: +1.3% to $67.80

This escalation has raised concerns over global oil supply, putting upward pressure on energy markets.

Meanwhile, Trump is scheduled to speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday regarding a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine has signaled tentative agreement to a U.S.-brokered ceasefire, but the details remain unclear.

Technical Levels to Watch: $NQ

Last week, we were focused on 20315 as a key level of interest. Sellers defended that zone, leading to a Sunday evening gap lower and a weekly low of 19140.5, aligning closely with our 19200 downside target.

Sellers have been in control for over a month, and buyers have struggled to show any meaningful strength since mid-February. However, with near-term price action flipping neutral, could a bounce be on the horizon?

Key Levels for the Week:
Upside Targets: 20000, 20350, 20700 (prior breakdown point)
Downside Targets: 19500 (last week’s VPOC), 19150 (last week’s low), 18875

If sellers fail to defend 19775, we could see a push higher. But if they successfully reject 19775, expect continued downside pressure.

Upcoming Economic Data & Earnings

Wednesday: FOMC decision (Federal Reserve meeting)
Thursday: Jobless claims
Thursday Earnings: Micron Technology (MU)

Stay sharp, stay disciplined, and see you in chat with today’s upgrades, downgrades, trade ideas, and more!

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