OP Wire 4/14 (OP – Lite)

By Steve

Tech Rebound, Tariff Tensions, and What Traders Need to Know

Hey OP! Friday’s bullish continuation gave us big wins, and our systems once again delivered in style. As we kick off the week, the market narrative is evolving fast. Let’s break down the key drivers, technical levels, and opportunities for your next stack.

1. Tech Stocks Surge on Tariff Relief (But It’s Not All Bullish)

Chinese tech names — especially Apple (AAPL) suppliers — popped Monday after Trump temporarily exempted certain electronics (like smartphones, laptops, flat panels, flash drives, and memory cards) from his 125% tariff threat.

In China, Luxshare, AAC Technologies, and Lenovo rallied, along with broader names like SMIC, Alibaba, Tencent, and Baidu. U.S.-listed Apple shares also climbed in premarket trading.

Trump said the exemption isn’t permanent, and that he’ll announce semiconductor tariffs later this week. So, while the move eased market pressure, uncertainty remains high.

2. Chinese Export Surprise – Front-Loading Before Tariffs

China’s March trade surplus surged to $102.64B, far exceeding expectations — driven by a 12.4% YoY spike in exports as U.S. buyers rushed to get ahead of tariff hikes.

This points to near-term supply chain acceleration but also confirms fears that demand could fall off once tariffs take effect.

3. Goldman Sachs Headlines Earnings Watch

Goldman Sachs reports earnings today, with expectations of:

Revenue: $14.76B
EPS: $12.26 (Bloomberg consensus)

Other bank CEOs — including Jamie Dimon (JPM) and Larry Fink (BLK) — have warned that Trump’s tariffs could weigh on deal flow, IPOs, and commercial lending.

Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley both noted clients are hitting pause while waiting for policy clarity. But Morgan Stanley’s CEO remains confident the U.S. can avoid recession — even with trade headwinds.

4. Consumer Sentiment Takes a Hit

University of Michigan’s April survey showed an 11% drop in sentiment, driven by inflation worries, recession fears, and unease over Trump’s tariff escalation. Unemployment concerns also hit their highest level since 2009.

Consumers are getting cautious — and that could pressure discretionary stocks if spending slows.

5. Friday Recap – Tariff Relief Fuels Rally

Markets closed out last week strong after the White House signaled it’s open to trade deals. Here’s the scorecard:

Dow: +619 to 40,212
S&P 500: +95 to 5,363
Nasdaq: +337 to 16,724

While China’s retaliatory 125% tariffs sparked early losses Friday, traders saw hope in the U.S. tariff pause — especially for tech.

But remember: semiconductors are not exempt, and Commerce Secretary Lutnick confirmed chip tariffs are coming.

6. Oil Steadies, Gold Pulls Back from Highs, Bitcoin Finds Footing

Oil paused after a rough stretch as global demand fears persist
Bitcoin bounced slightly with improved risk appetite
Gold pulled back after hitting record highs on safe-haven demand

7. $QQQ Levels to Watch

With volatility surging, these levels are key:

Support: 432 → 415 → 400
Resistance: 468 → 485 → 492 (200-day MA)
→ A break above 468 signals bullish reversal continuation
→ Failure to hold 432 could bring a retest of 415-400 zone

8. $NQ Weekly Roadmap

Last week’s posted level at 19,400 LOI held after a sharp overshoot to 16,460, followed by a powerful bounce. This week:

Upside Targets:
→ 19,350 reclaim = 20,000 → 20,500 test possible

Downside Risks:
→ If rejected, watch 18,600 → 18,000 → 17,100

→ Size down in wide structures — volatility expansion = risk expansion

9. Today’s Key Data & Fed Speeches

🇺🇸 OPEC Monthly Report – 7:00AM ET
🇺🇸 Fed Waller Speaks – 1:00PM ET
🇺🇸 FOMC Harker Speaks – 6:00PM ET
🇺🇸 FOMC Bostic Speaks – 7:40PM ET

Coming This Week:

Wednesday: Powell Speech
Thursday: Jobless Claims
Earnings: TSMC, NFLX (Thursday)

10. Quick Hits:

IRS Deadline is tomorrow (April 15) unless you’re in a disaster-designated area
Child-rearing costs are rising — estimated at $300K per child through age 18 by 2025
Goldman Sachs earnings today could reset risk sentiment on Wall Street

Final Word from OP:

Our Friday alerts stacked serious gains after Trump’s tariff delay headlines. And yes — we called the bond auction bounce before tech ripped. Today’s another setup-rich environment. Watch your levels, follow the system, and don’t chase noise.

Ready for another payday? Let’s get it.
See you in chat. Keep stacking.

— Team OptionsPlayers

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