OP Wire 4/28 (OP – Lite)

By Steve

Futures Edge Lower Ahead of Crucial Earnings and Trade Developments

U.S. stock futures slipped slightly early Monday as traders turned their attention to a critical wave of corporate earnings — all while monitoring evolving tensions around U.S.-China tariffs.

Wall Street closed higher on Friday, fueled by strong company results and signs of a potential easing in the U.S.-China trade standoff. Tech stocks led the gains, with Alphabet (GOOGL) popping 1.7% after reporting a surge in cloud revenue and telling investors that their bold artificial intelligence (AI) investments are beginning to pay off.

Beijing also took a step toward de-escalation, moving to exempt some U.S. imports from its harsh 125% retaliatory tariffs. However, China rejected claims from President Donald Trump that trade negotiations had restarted. (More below.)

Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment reading showed U.S. consumer confidence at its lowest level since July 2022, even though the reading was revised slightly upward from preliminary figures. Growing concerns around tariff impacts are beginning to show up in sentiment surveys.

2. Earnings Parade Marches On

This week kicks off with a heavy slate of earnings, beginning after Monday’s close. Companies on deck include:

NXP Semiconductors (NXPI)
Nucor Corporation (NUE)
Cincinnati Financial (CINF)
SBA Communications (SBAC)

So far, over 175 companies in the S&P 500 have reported — with more than 70% beating expectations, according to LSEG data via Reuters. Earnings growth for the first quarter is now expected to rise 9.7% year-over-year, compared to the 8.0% estimate at the start of April.

However, despite the strong numbers, many companies are lowering or eliminating forward guidance as elevated U.S. tariffs cloud the economic outlook.

3. Treasury Secretary Bessent on U.S.-China Negotiations

Confusion surrounds the status of U.S.-China trade talks after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cast doubt on claims made by President Trump. Over the weekend, Bessent stated that he was not aware of any official talks resuming between the U.S. and China, despite Trump’s public statements.

Bessent emphasized that while Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping maintain a “very good relationship,” no formal discussions on tariffs have been confirmed. He also noted that while he interacted with Chinese officials at the IMF meetings last week, tariffs were not discussed.

Adding to the uncertainty, Bessent recently warned that any trade negotiation process will be a “slog,” with no immediate timetable for resolution.

4. Airbus Finalizes Spirit AeroSystems Deal

In corporate news, Airbus finalized an agreement to take over select assets from Spirit AeroSystems, pushing forward the planned carve-up of the struggling supplier between Airbus and Boeing (BA).

Key highlights of the deal:

Airbus to extend $200 million in non-interest-bearing credit lines to Spirit.
Airbus to receive $439 million in compensation from Spirit.
Spirit to continue producing A220 wings in Belfast, Northern Ireland.

Spirit’s CFO Irene Esteves called the deal a “significant milestone” as they move closer to completing the Boeing acquisition.

5. Gold Slips from Record Highs

Gold prices retreated early Monday, pulling back from recent record highs as hopes for a softening in U.S.-China trade tensions dampened safe-haven demand.

Spot gold: down 1.0% to $3,283.62 per ounce
Gold futures (June delivery): slightly down 0.1% to $3,293.51 per ounce

Markets are now looking ahead to several critical U.S. economic reports this week, including:

Q1 GDP
April jobs report
PCE inflation index (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge)

These numbers could heavily influence the Fed’s upcoming interest rate decisions, especially amid global trade uncertainty.

6. NQ Futures Review and This Week’s Outlook

Last week’s NQ plan played out perfectly for OptionsPlayers:

Monday began with a higher timeframe “spring setup,” as price undercut the critical 18,000 support.
Tuesday gapped higher, confirming a “trap” and setting up a rally.
Buyers pushed strongly throughout the week, with the weekly high hitting 19,589, just 11 points shy of our upside target of 19,600.

Focus for This Week:

Key level: 19,350 — this marks a critical Change of Character (CHOCH) on the daily chart.
If buyers hold above 19,350, price can test:
- 20,000
- 20,500
- 20,800
If buyers fail to hold 19,350, we could revisit:
- 18,800
- 18,000

Quick Reference Levels of Interest:

Upside Targets: 20,000 / 20,500 / 20,800
Downside Targets: 19,350 / 18,800 / 18,000

7. Notable Economic Data This Week:

Tuesday: JOLTS Job Openings
Wednesday: Q1 GDP
Thursday: Jobless Claims
Friday: April Unemployment Rate

8. Notable Earnings to Watch:

Wednesday: META, MSFT, QCOM
Thursday: AAPL, AMZN, ROKU

See you all in chat — stay disciplined and prepared! Stack your gains!

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