China Trade Deal Pauses Tariff War – Markets Rip Higher
Markets are kicking off the week with strength after the U.S. and China reached a surprise trade agreement over the weekend in Geneva. According to U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Rep Jamieson Greer, the two countries have agreed to:
- A 90-day pause on their escalating tariff war
- A reduction in U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%
- China has agreed to cut its retaliatory duties on U.S. imports from 125% to 10%
“Neither side wants decoupling,” Bessent said in a joint statement, signaling further negotiations are planned.
Market reaction? Strong relief buying—with optimism replacing uncertainty.
Investors had been bracing for a global slowdown, but the announcement brought renewed confidence and upside momentum into Monday’s session.
Market Commentary – Tone Shifting, But Trust Fragile
“We’ve seen stabilization, but trust in the White House remains damaged,” said Alberto Matellan of La Financiere Responsable.
The key takeaway? Clarity equals confidence. The market can deal with bad news—but not confusion. Trump’s tariff moves may have broken investor trust, but the latest moves hint at repair.
If the progress holds, a clearer policy outlook could lead to a sustained market rally.
Ceasefire Between India & Pakistan Adds Fuel to Risk-On Sentiment
In another geopolitical win, India and Pakistan have agreed to a full and immediate ceasefire, reportedly mediated by the U.S. Trump took credit for the peace deal, tweeting:
“After a long night of talks… cooler heads prevailed.”
This has added to the market’s risk-on tone to start the week.
Trump Eyes Big Pharma With Massive Executive Order
The pharmaceutical sector is now under the microscope after Trump announced a sweeping executive order to slash drug prices by 30% to 80%.
“One of the most consequential executive orders in U.S. history,” Trump declared.
This could trigger sector-wide volatility, especially as companies like Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO)compete on obesity drugs—LLY’s Zepbound reportedly outperforming NVO’s Wegovy in head-to-head trials.
Earnings Week Continues – Watch These Names
This week continues to be earnings-heavy. Here’s what’s on deck:
- Home Depot (HD)
- Palo Alto Networks (PANW)
- Lowe’s (LOW)
- Target (TGT)
- Snowflake (SNOW)
- Thursday: Alibaba (BABA) and Walmart (WMT)
Oil Surges on Trade Hopes
Crude continues its bounce:
- Brent: +0.9% to $61.69
- WTI: +1.1% to $58.72
With the world’s top two oil consumers potentially back on cooperative terms, demand optimism is returning to the oil trade.
$QQQ Index Technicals – Time to Clear 500?
We open the week with $QQQ ramping above its 200-day moving average at 490, tagging highs near 498.
If bulls can break through the psychological 500 level, we may see a full squeeze cycle as directional sentiment accelerates.
- Must-Hold Support: 490
- Backstop Levels: 485 → 480
- Immediate Goal: Break and hold above 500
Futures Level of Interest Update
Last week we flagged the importance of the 20,000 level on index futures—and it continues to anchor price.
“Acceptance above 20,300 will trigger breakouts to 20,500, 20,900, and possibly 21,500,” we noted.
That still holds true this week.
- If bulls defend 20,000 and reclaim 20,300, the door opens to 20,900+
- If sellers defend 20,300, downside targets: 19,700 → 19,500 → 19,350
- Failure at 19,700 would trigger a broader range breakdown
Quick Reference: Levels to Watch
Upside Targets: 20,300 → 20,500 → 20,900 → 21,500
Downside Targets: 19,700 → 19,500 → 19,350
This Week’s Key Economic Data
- Monday:
- WASDE Report – 12PM ET
- Federal Budget Balance (Apr) – 2PM ET
- Tuesday: CPI (key inflation print)
- Wednesday: PPI + Powell Speaks
- Friday: Michigan Consumer Sentiment
In the Chat — INTC Play Explodes + Weekly Livestream Recap
Shoutout to everyone in OP Gold Chat who nailed the INTC move last week!
That trade popped, and it’s just getting started. Plenty of upside left.
If you missed our weekly Live Stream, check out the recording here:
Watch the Replay
Final Thoughts:
Markets are clearing major headlines with a renewed bullish tone, but we’re still trading a trust-based market—and headlines can flip sentiment fast. Stick to your levels, stay sharp, and don’t trade on hope.
We’ll be in the chat all day breaking it down. Let’s make it another profitable week.
Stack your gains — OP style.
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