OP Wire — Market Recap & Trading Notes for Wednesday
U.S. stock futures are flat this morning, but investor mood has clearly shifted to a more constructive tone as global trade tensions ease and economic data show signs of relief.
Markets Recap:
Tuesday’s session ended mixed. The Dow Jones was dragged down by a sharp decline in UnitedHealth Group (UNH) after the insurer suspended its forward guidance and announced CEO departure. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite led gains and the S&P 500 managed to climb back into positive territory for the year—first time since February—largely driven by relief over tariffs and softer inflation numbers.
While April’s inflation came in cooler than expected, many traders are staying cautious. The real concern? The impact of elevated tariffs could start showing up in future CPI reports.
Tariff Update:
The White House just slashed the de minimis threshold tariffs on low-value China packages—direct-to-consumer goods under $800—from 120% down to 54%, with plans to reduce further to 30%. A flat $100 fee still applies, but a scheduled jump to $200 in June was canceled. FedEx (FDX) and UPS (UPS), which process shipments from low-cost retailers like Shein and Temu, fall under separate rules. According to Reuters, most packages now default to a 30% U.S. import levy after trade talks last weekend lowered rates from 145%+.
Earnings Watch:
All eyes today are on Cisco Systems (CSCO). Analysts are optimistic, noting strong enterprise demand and healthy AI data center spending. Cisco previously raised full-year revenue guidance thanks to AI infrastructure demand—think routers and switches for cloud networks. Margin pressures from tariffs remain a wildcard.
Also reporting today:
- DXC Technology (DXC)
- Hawkins Inc. (HWKN)
- Jack In The Box (JACK)
- CRWV (after-hours): Showing bullish momentum and SqueezeFinder confirmation. They’ve just hit all-time highs post-IPO. Eyes on this one.
Sony (TYO:6758) posted net profit of ¥197.73B for the March quarter—a 4.6% YoY gain, beating estimates. However, they warned that the full-year operating profit forecast of ¥1.28T ($8.7B) will absorb a ¥100B hit from U.S. tariffs. That said, this estimate doesn’t yet reflect the latest U.S.-China tariff deal. Sony shares recovered from a steep morning drop and ended green in Tokyo trading.
Energy Market Update:
Oil prices are slightly lower today after the API reported a 4.3M barrel increase in U.S. crude inventories, raising demand concerns.
- Brent: $66.57
- WTI: $63.62
Both had rallied >2.5% earlier this week on the heels of the U.S.-China tariff pause. The EIA’s official numbers drop at 10:30AM ET.
$QQQ Breakdown:
Bulls are roaring back. The tech-heavy QQQ index closed at 515.59 yesterday—roughly 5% above its 200-day moving average at 490.
Key Levels:
- Resistance: 530, 540
- Support: 515 (pivot), 500 (psych level), 494, and 490 (200-day MA)
Bearish momentum is getting steamrolled right now in this face-melting rally. Stay nimble—but bulls have the edge.
Trading Floor Notes:
- Great calls on INTC—that squeeze is delivering!
- Still scalping WMT puts through earnings. Looks like a great setup.
- TSLA puts are on radar today—setting up nicely.
- CRWV after-hours—let’s see if it explodes again.
Today’s Economic Calendar (ET):
- 5:15AM – Fed Waller Speaks
- 7:00AM – OPEC Monthly Report
- 10:30AM – U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
- 5:40PM – FOMC Member Daly Speaks
Reminder to OP Members: If you’re trading in this environment without a system, you’re gambling. Our setups are delivering daily wins because we use structured analysis—not hype.
See you in chat. Stay sharp and Stack Your Gains.
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