OP Wire 5/16 (OP – Lite)

By Steve

OptionsPlayers Market Wire – Friday Edition
Mixed Macro, Sector Signals & INTC Opportunity Ahead

U.S. stock futures edged higher early Friday as traders digested a fresh batch of economic data and a cautious truce in the U.S.-China tariff battle. While the agreement has reduced immediate recession concerns — with Barclays notably removing its call for a U.S. recession in 2025 — doubts still linger over future tariff escalations and their ripple effects.

1. Market Futures Rise Modestly

Dow futures: +152 pts (+0.4%)
S&P 500 futures: +16 pts (+0.3%)
Nasdaq 100 futures: +50 pts (+0.2%)

Thursday’s session was mixed as markets weighed President Trump’s aggressive tariff strategy against a temporary truce with Beijing. Walmart (WMT) issued a notable warning — signaling that tariff costs will force price hikes soon — something likely to cascade across other low-margin retailers.

Economic data came in soft:

Producer Prices: Unexpected cooling
Core Retail Sales: Slowed sharply after March’s surge

According to ING’s Chief Economist James Knightley, “Pre-emptive buying ahead of tariff hikes has faded fast — and profit margins are now absorbing the costs… but that may not last.”

2. Barclays Reverses Recession Call

Barclays now expects +0.5% U.S. GDP growth in 2025, up from their prior -0.3% recession forecast. For 2026, their growth projection increased to 1.6%. Reduced trade uncertainty and a slightly improving global macro outlook contributed to the upgrade.

In the eurozone, growth estimates also improved, though Barclays still warns of a technical recession in the back half of 2025 due to ongoing EU-U.S. tariff standoffs.

3. Consumer Sentiment in Focus

All eyes are on Friday’s University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment reading for May. This “soft data” point has shown sharp deterioration recently, driven by inflation fears and tariff-related pessimism.

Although sentiment has sagged, the Fed recently noted signs of resilience in U.S. household and business spending. Expect volatility if the sentiment print misses expectations.

4. Applied Materials Misses – China Tensions Mount

Shares of Applied Materials (AMAT) slipped after-hours after weak sales in its core semiconductor systems segment:

Q2 revenue: $7.10B vs. $7.13B est
EPS: $2.39 (beat vs. $2.31 est)
Revenue from China: Down to 25% of total sales, vs. 43% a year ago

U.S. export restrictions are tightening, and AMAT’s CFO cited a “dynamic economic and trade environment” as a continued headwind. Still, Q3 revenue guidance was in line, with a midpoint of $7.2B.

5. Gold Retreats

Gold futures dropped sharply:

Spot Gold: -1% to $3,208.56/oz
Down ~3.2% for the week — worst since Nov 2024

Why?

De-escalation in U.S.-China tensions
Profit-taking after record highs
Rising U.S. yields and a stronger dollar pressured bullion

6. Intel Targets Samsung – Quiet but Bullish Moves

In case you missed it, TipRanks highlighted how Intel (INTC) is aiming to dethrone Samsung as the second-largest foundry player globally by 2030.

Key Intel Growth Drivers:

Foundry push: Long-term contracts and infrastructure buildouts under CEO Lip-Bu Tan
Advanced chip race: Targeting 1.8nm & 1.4nm production nodes
AI/data center shift: Xeon 6 CPUs gaining traction in AI workloads
Strategic targeting: Chasing market verticals where TSMC is less focused

Investor Insight: Despite shares being down 32% YoY, Intel’s long-term thesis is solid. Analysts currently hold a “Hold” rating with a $21.23 price target — but OptionsPlayers sees deeper value in the chart and is watching for volume confirmation and reversals.

What We’re Watching at OptionsPlayers Today:

Scalping INTC calls on foundry upside and long-term tech capital exposure
NFLX puts for short-term weakness after a bearish setup on Thursday
Green Goose Trade Alert: For new and returning members, we’re still offering our powerful Gap Trade Systemthat buys at the close and sells at the open — and it’s been cashing in since 2016. Check it out in the Courses taband lock in your $100 discount today:

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Stay nimble, stay strategic, and as always — Stack Your Gains.
— OptionsPlayers Team

#INTC #NFLX #WMT #AMAT #GreenGoose #Tariffs #OptionsTrading #StackYourGains #GapTrading #OPWire #USChinaTrade #RecessionOutlook #TechStocks #Semiconductors #IntelFoundry #ConsumerSentiment

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