What a whirlwind end to the month as the market navigates a perfect storm of tariff drama, inflation data, and Fed policy positioning. Let’s break it all down for the OptionsPlayers community:
🇨🇳 2. U.S.-China Trade Talks Hit a Wall
After a brief relief rally driven by a 90-day tariff truce, U.S.-China talks have stalled, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. A breakthrough may now require direct intervention from Trump and China’s President Xi.
“Given the complexity of the issues, this likely needs both leaders to weigh in,” Bessent noted.
Although the temporary truce sparked bullish momentum across global equities, it doesn’t resolve the deeper tensions— especially U.S. frustrations over China’s state-backed export model.
📉 3. U.S. Futures Dip After a Strong May
As of 03:35 ET:
- S&P 500 Futures: -0.1%
- Nasdaq 100 Futures: -0.2%
- Dow Futures: -0.2%
Markets are cooling slightly to close out a very green May:
- S&P 500: +6%
- Nasdaq Composite: +10%
- Dow Jones: +4%
Friday’s focus? A critical PCE inflation reading, plus earnings reactions from Gap (GAP), Ulta Beauty (ULTA), and Dell (DELL) after Thursday’s close.
💸 4. All Eyes on PCE Inflation – Fed’s Favorite Gauge
The Core PCE Price Index — the Federal Reserve’s go-to inflation metric — drops at 8:30 AM ET. Expectations are for a +0.1% MoM gain and a 2.5% YoY increase, down slightly from 2.6% prior.
This comes as the Fed holds rates in the 4.25%-4.5% range, taking a cautious stance amid economic uncertainty — including tariff-driven cost pressures and mixed signals in consumer spending.
Watch for volatility depending on how this data impacts Fed expectations. Traders should also factor in delayed inflation effects from on-again, off-again tariff implementation.
🛢 5. Crude Oil Rises Ahead of OPEC+ Meeting
Crude futures edged higher Friday morning:
- Brent: $63.50 (+0.2%)
- WTI: $61.15 (+0.3%)
Despite the move, oil is on track for a second straight losing week (-1.5%), and down over 10% since Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs in early April. Traders now await Saturday’s OPEC+ meeting, with another supply hikeexpected in July.
📈 $QQQ Holding Key Support Zones
The $QQQ tech index surged earlier this week to a local high of 526.48, but has since pulled back. Bulls need to hold key levels to maintain momentum:
- Immediate supports: 515 → 508 → 500
- Below 500: watch for potential gap fill to 493
This week was packed with data and price action, and all eyes are on today’s numbers to see if bulls extend or the market takes a needed breather.
📊 Today’s Key U.S. Economic Data:
- 8:30 AM ET: Core PCE Price Index (Apr)
- 8:30 AM ET: Personal Spending (Apr)
- 8:30 AM ET: PCE Price Index (Apr)
- 8:30 AM ET: Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Apr)
- 8:30 AM ET: Goods Trade Balance (Apr)
- 9:45 AM ET: Chicago PMI (May)
- 10:00 AM ET: Michigan Consumer Sentiment + Inflation Expectations (May)
- 11:30 AM ET: Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2)
- 12:20 PM ET: FOMC’s Bostic speaks
- 1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count
📢 OP Move of the Day:
I’ll be buying BABA calls (2 months out) today based on technicals and volume momentum. Watch for confirmation.
✅ Reminder: Join us in the chat — let’s trade these reactions together.
Stack your gains. Trade with clarity. Be the OP in the room.
— Team OptionsPlayers
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