OP Wire 7/9 (OP – Lite)

By Steve

🧾 Wednesday Market Update: Tariff Tensions, FOMC Minutes & Tax Code Shifts Take Center Stage

U.S. stock futures traded flat early Wednesday as Wall Street absorbed a flurry of tariff-related headlines and prepared for the release of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes.

As of 03:31 ET, Dow futures were flat, S&P 500 futures dipped 3 points (-0.1%), and Nasdaq 100 futures edged lower by 14 points (-0.1%). The major averages were mixed Tuesday, with the $QQQ closing essentially unchanged at 552.34, remaining firmly above its previous breakout level near 540.

🇺🇸 Trump’s Tariffs: Delay Extended, But Threats Intensify

President Trump’s aggressive tariff agenda is back in focus. Letters were sent to over a dozen countries this week, spelling out the elevated levies they now face. However, markets found relief after the White House extended the tariff implementation deadline to August 1—pushing back today’s originally planned activation date.

That said, Trump made it clear in a cabinet meeting that no further extensions are expected. He even floated a 50% tariff on imported copper, citing national and industrial importance, and warned of future levies on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and other sectors.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added that tariffs have already brought in $100 billion this year, with projections of up to $300 billion by December—potentially helping offset the massive cost of last week’s tax and spending package.

🏛️ The Big Beautiful Bill: Game-Changer for Traders, Businesses, and Families

As detailed in our earlier OP Feed Post, the newly signed “Big Beautiful Bill” fundamentally reshapes the U.S. tax landscape and will have a ripple effect on markets for years to come. Here’s a quick recap of what’s in play:

Standard Deduction Increased (from 2026): More income shielded from tax
→ Married: $31,500 | Single: $15,750
QBI Deduction Made Permanent: 20% deduction on pass-through income for LLCs, S corps, and sole proprietors
Bonus Depreciation Restored 100% (Permanently): Immediate write-offs on business assets = better cash flow
New Tax Deductions for Overtime & Tips (2025–2028): Up to $25K in deductions, phased out above $150K/$300K
$10K Deduction for Car Loan Interest (if U.S.-made, personal use, income-qualified)
Green Energy Tax Credits Eliminated: Ends subsidies for EVs, solar, and other IRA-linked programs
IRS Funding Slashed: Reduces audit capacity and enforcement scope
Paid Family Leave Credit Extended & Expanded
Universal Savings Accounts for Newborns: $1,000 seed + tax-free contributions for education, retirement, housing, etc.

Investor Takeaway: This bill tilts the table heavily toward business owners, capital investors, and the service workforce. Energy markets, autos, and traditional manufacturing could see an upside rotation, while clean energy stocks may struggle with the withdrawal of government incentives.

🏦 All Eyes on the Fed: FOMC Minutes at 2PM ET

Traders are now focused on the Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes, set for release at 2PM ET. Policymakers kept rates steady last month, citing uncertainty around tariff fallout and the need for a cautious wait-and-see approach.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has hinted that rates might have already been cut if not for the ongoing tariff noise. Markets are currently pricing in two cuts before year-end—September and December being the likely windows.

But Trump’s renewed push for rate reductions (calling Powell “terrible” again yesterday) adds political pressure as speculation swirls around the next Fed Chair. Reports suggest Kevin Hassett is emerging as a frontrunner, having met with Trump multiple times last month.

🛢️ Crude Oil Watch

Oil markets are mostly flat. Brent is up just 0.1% to $70.19, while WTI sits at $68.36. An unexpected 7.1 million barrelbuild in U.S. inventories (vs. a forecasted draw) is weighing on price momentum, though Red Sea shipping threats are still supportive.

📈 In the OP Trading Room

Yesterday, we stacked gains in $BABA and $INTC
Re-buying $BABA leaps today
Bitcoin holds firm near $108,000/coin, and gold trades at ~$3,300/oz
Plenty of bullish setups showing up in SqueezeFinder—check your live watchlist

📅 Today’s Key Economic Releases:

10:30 AM ET: U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
1:00 PM ET: Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2 Update)
1:00 PM ET: 10-Year Note Auction
2:00 PM ET: FOMC Meeting Minutes

⚠️ Final Note:

While the market remains cautiously optimistic today, the Big Beautiful Bill is a foundational shift that could reprice multiple asset classes. Add in tariff volatility, Fed rate uncertainty, and sector-specific policy changes, and you’ve got a macro environment built for nimble traders and informed investors.

See you in Chat as we stack more gains — stay sharp.

— OP Wire Team

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