Wall Street saw a breather last week as all major indices — the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average — snapped their three-week winning streaks and pulled back modestly from record levels. But beneath the surface, there’s no shortage of action to prepare for.
🇺🇸 Trump Drops the Hammer – Tariffs Ramp Up
President Trump continues to reshape the global trade landscape. Over the weekend, he announced 30% tariffs on goods from Mexico and the European Union, following a week where similar levies were placed on Japan, South Korea, Canada, Brazil, and a 50% duty on all copper imports.
These new tariffs take effect August 1, giving impacted nations under three weeks to strike deals with Washington. Trump says talks with South Korea and the EU are ongoing.
Meanwhile, U.S. customs duties surged to $113.3 billion for the first nine months of fiscal 2025, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent forecasts that figure could hit $300 billion by year-end — a major windfall for government revenue.
📊 Eyes on Inflation & the Fed
This week’s key economic print is Tuesday’s CPI report for June:
- Expected MoM: +0.3% (vs. +0.1% prior)
- Expected YoY: +2.6% (vs. 2.4% prior)
This data will be critical in gauging when the Fed may pull the trigger on its next rate cut. Currently, futures markets are leaning toward a rate cut in September, with minimal odds priced in for the July meeting.
🛢️ Oil Moves on Russia News
Crude oil prices rose Monday on expectations of additional U.S. sanctions on Russia. At 06:15 ET:
- Brent: +1.5% to $71.42
- WTI: +1.6% to $69.57
Trump is expected to make a “major statement” on Russia today, signaling potential energy-related disruption. Meanwhile, the EU inches closer to a new sanctions package that includes a lower oil price cap.
🔍 Tech Index & Bitcoin Watch
The $QQQ closed Friday at 554.20 (-0.23%), less than 1% below the all-time high of 557.63 set on July 9. For bulls, 540 remains key support — the former all-time high now needs to flip into confirmed support to continue this euphoric bullish trend.
- Bitcoin is trading near new all-time highs around $121,000
- Gold sits at $3,370/oz
- Bitcoin miners and drone stocks should stay on your radar after Defense Secretary Hegseth’s recent pro-drone comments.
🧭 NQ Game Plan – Tight Range, Volatility Ahead
Last week, NQ futures hovered around 23,000, trading in a low-volume, range-bound fashion. After the powerful 6-day rally into the end of June, this sideways chop was expected during a week with light catalysts.
With CPI and earnings now in play, the range is likely to break. Here’s how we see it:
- Range to Watch: 22,780 – 23,100
- Upside Breakout Targets:
- 23,100 (break/confirm)
- 23,500
- 24,000
- Downside Breakdown Targets:
- 22,600 (first break)
- 22,400
- 22,000 (major support)
📌 Pro Tip: If you’ve been struggling with chop, learn to recognize low-quality environments. Not every day is trade-worthy. Market structure and catalysts always matter.
📅 Key Events This Week
📈 Economic Data:
- Tuesday: CPI
- Wednesday: PPI
- Thursday: Retail Sales
- Friday: Michigan Consumer Sentiment
💼 Earnings Lineup:
- Tuesday: C, JPM, WFC
- Wednesday: BAC, GS
- Thursday: TSM, NFLX
📢 We’ll be live in chat this week breaking it all down as it happens. Come prepared, ask questions, and let’s stack gains the right way.
— Team OptionsPlayers
#StackYourGains #TradeWithStructure #OptionsPlayers
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