1. High-Stakes Diplomacy in Alaska
President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin meet today in Alaska for their first face-to-face talks since Trump returned to the White House. The goal: negotiate an end to the three-year war in Ukraine.
- Trump has warned of “severe consequences” if Putin refuses peace.
- Talks may set up a three-way summit with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
- Key sticking point: Putin is expected to demand control over Donbas, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, which Ukraine strongly opposes.
- Ukraine was reassured after a midweek call in which Trump agreed that Kyiv must be involved in any territorial discussions.
Outcome here could ripple across energy markets, global supply chains, and geopolitical sentiment.
2. U.S. Futures Edge Higher – Inflation Still in Focus
U.S. stock futures are modestly green this morning:
- S&P 500 +0.8%
- Nasdaq 100 +0.3%
- Dow +0.1%
The S&P 500 hit another record close yesterday, but hotter-than-expected PPI data hinted Trump’s tariffs are pushing inflation through the system.
- Fed rate cut expectations: >90% odds for 25 bps in September.
- No more hopes for a jumbo 50 bps cut.
- Retail Sales (July) this morning could sway sentiment.
3. Buffett Buys UnitedHealth (UNH)
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a new $1.57B position in UnitedHealth Group (UNH), sending shares sharply higher in premarket trading.
- UNH shares have dropped 46% YTD amid CEO turnover, lowered guidance, and a DOJ investigation into Medicare billing.
- Berkshire also cut Apple (AAPL) and Bank of America (BAC) stakes, while adding homebuilders D.R. Horton (DHI) and Lennar (LEN).
4. Japan’s Economy Surprises to the Upside
Japan’s GDP grew 1% YoY in Q2, beating forecasts and marking a 5th straight quarter of expansion despite new U.S. tariffs.
- Auto exporters offset tariff costs by cutting prices.
- Sustaining this pace may be tough if trade tensions persist.
5. Crude Oil Steady Ahead of Alaska Talks
Oil traders are watching the Trump–Putin meeting closely:
- Brent $66.44 (-0.6%)
- WTI $63.54 (-0.6%)
A Ukraine ceasefire could ease supply pressures, while continued conflict supports prices by limiting Russian output.
6. $QQQ & Key Market Levels
- Closed flat at 579.89 (-0.08%) despite intraday swings.
- Less than 1% away from new ATH above 583.32.
- Support: 575 → 560 → 550 → 540 (long-term pivot).
7. Economic Data on Deck (ET)
8:30 AM – Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales, Retail Control, Export & Import Price Index, NY Empire State Mfg. Index
9:15 AM – Industrial Production
10:00 AM – Michigan Sentiment & Inflation Expectations, Retail Inventories, Business Inventories
1:00 PM – Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3), Baker Hughes Rig Counts
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