OP Wire 8/22 (OP – Lite)

All eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at 10AM ET at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

Rate cut odds in September: once near 99%, now down to 71.5% after hotter inflation data and hawkish Fed comments.
Kansas City Fed’s Schmid warned cuts aren’t urgent with inflation still above target.
Cleveland Fed’s Hammack added stubborn inflation could rule out a cut altogether.
Markets fear stagflation (weak growth + sticky inflation), limiting Powell’s ability to ease.
Expect Powell to address Fed independence after recent criticism from Trump, who even demanded Fed Governor Lisa Cook resign.

Volatility is guaranteed as traders look for clarity.

Markets are cautious ahead of Powell:

S&P -7 pts, Nasdaq -60, Dow -20 as of 3AM ET.
Yesterday: S&P 500 logged a 5th straight down day. Week-to-date: S&P -1.2%, Nasdaq -2.4%, Dow -0.4%.
Corporate spotlight: Intuit ($INTU) and Zoom ($ZM) after earnings yesterday.

Reports say Nvidia ($NVDA) has told suppliers to halt work on its H20 chip for China.

Foxconn, Amkor, and Samsung asked to pause production.
Beijing reportedly raised concerns about “tracking technology.”
Nvidia only resumed sales in July after earlier restrictions.
Company statement: “We constantly manage our supply chain to address market conditions.”

This adds more uncertainty for NVDA’s China strategy.

Meta ($META) struck a $10B, six-year deal with Google ($GOOGL) to use its cloud servers, storage, and services.

Part of Meta’s massive AI spending spree — now guiding $66B–$72B in annual capex.
Meta is also offloading $2B in data center assets to ease the cost burden.
AI Hyperscalers are under pressure to prove returns on hundreds of billions already invested.

Oil prices ticking higher into Friday:

WTI $63.59 (+0.1%) | Brent $67.68 (+0.1%).
Brent up 3% this week, WTI up 1.4%.
Support from strong U.S. demand (bigger-than-expected crude drawdown) + stalled Russia/Ukraine peace talks.
Ongoing supply risks keep crude bid.

$QQQ closed 563.28 (-0.46%) yesterday.
Still within 10% of all-time highs (583.32), but also less than 5% from testing the key 540 pivot.
Expect elevated volatility tied to Powell’s remarks and macro headlines.

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