OP Wire 9/25 (OP – Lite)

By Steve

📊 Market Overview – Data & Sentiment

The market is in wait-and-see mode as jobs data, GDP, and PCE inflation loom large. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments earlier this week — that there is “no risk-free path” for the central bank — hit sentiment hard. His caution following last week’s 25 bps rate cut has traders questioning how many more cuts we’ll actually see this year.

With that in mind, weekly jobless claims take center stage today, especially with policymakers worried about a cooling labor market and rising layoffs. We’ll also get the final read on Q2 GDP later this morning, followed by the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — PCE — on Friday. Expect these prints to set the tone for intraday sentiment.

⚠️ Government Shutdown Risk

Investors remain uneasy about a potential partial government shutdown. Congress is locked in a funding standoff after the Senate rejected a Republican stopgap bill last week. According to reports, the White House has already told agencies to prep contingency layoff plans in case no deal is reached.

💼 Earnings in Focus

Accenture (ACN) leads today’s earnings slate. The firm has prioritized AI consulting as a key growth driver in the face of tariff-related uncertainty.
Jabil Circuit (JBL), a key Apple supplier, also reports. JBL shares are up 57% YTD on strong demand tied to data center infrastructure — a trend fueled by AI adoption.
Intel (INTC) got a boost after reports surfaced that the company approached Apple (AAPL) about a potential investment.

🛢️ Crude Oil Pullback

Oil prices are easing after a strong move higher Wednesday:

Brent: $68.93 (-0.6%)
WTI: $64.56 (-0.7%)

Both benchmarks rallied 2.5% yesterday on surprise inventory draws and renewed concerns over Ukraine’s targeting of Russian energy infrastructure.

📈 Technical Levels – $QQQ

Powell’s tone sparked some profit-taking yesterday, with the QQQ closing at 596.10 (-0.35%).

Key support: 590 → losing this could accelerate near-term selling, with 580 as the next test.
Key resistance: 600 → regaining this level would flip sentiment back bullish.

Elsewhere:

Bitcoin: ~$111.3K/coin
Gold: ~$3,775/oz
Silver: ~$44.3/oz

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