Morning vibe: Futures are green as traders brace for fresh inflation reads and digest a new tariff volley out of D.C. We’ll keep it tight and tradable.
Futures
- Dow +0.2% | S&P +0.1% | Nasdaq 100 +0.1% pre-market.
- Thursday’s dip came on hotter data (lower jobless claims, GDP revision). Short-dated yields popped—pressure on the “more cuts” camp.
Macro Focus — PCE (8:30a ET)
- Street looks for Core PCE +0.2% m/m; +2.9% y/y (unch from July).
- Read-through: a benign print keeps hope alive for cuts later this year, but the Fed is threading the needle between sticky inflation and a cooling labor market.
Policy Watch — New Tariffs
- Trump announced tariffs including 100% duties on branded/patented pharma (plus 25% on heavy trucks; other product-specific levies).
- European/Asian drugmakers ticked lower. Reminder: “reciprocal” country tariffs may share the stage with product-specific hits—headline risk isn’t going away.
Semi Check — Import Reliance in the Crosshairs
- A reported policy discussion would push U.S. tech to match domestic semi output with imports or face tariffs.
- EU/Asia chip names slipped; U.S. onshoring narrative = tailwind for stateside capacity, uncertainty for overseas suppliers. Watch capex winners and tool makers on pullbacks.
Metals & Energy
- Gold steady after a pullback from highs—tariff noise + PCE anticipation = safe-haven bid stays warm.
- Crude higher on Russia infra attacks + surprise U.S. draw → constructive tape into week’s end.
QQQ Game Plan
- Yesterday’s QQQ action looked like the early innings of a needed pullback after a monster run.
- Bulls defended the LOD with a clean intraday “V,” closing 593.53 (-0.43%).
- Levels: < 580 opens a quick test of 570–560; reclaim/close > 600 sets tone for a constructive weekly.
- Keep your playbook flexible—“bear-style” vol is lurking despite the broader bull phase.
Big Board — Snapshot
- BTC: ~$109.6k
- Gold (spot): ~$3,780/oz
- Silver (spot): ~$45/oz
Today’s Calendar (ET)
- 8:30 — Core PCE (Aug), PCE (Aug), Personal Spending (Aug)
- 10:00 — Michigan 1Y & 5Y Inflation Expectations (Sep), Michigan Sentiment/Expectations
- 11:30 — Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3)
- 1:00 — Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Count; FOMC Bowman speaks
- 6:00 — FOMC Bostic speaks
OP Notes
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- See you in chat for live levels, entries, and risk. Let’s work.
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