U.S. Government Shutdown: Game On
A partial shutdown is officially in effect after a GOP-backed funding bill failed in the Senate (55–45; needed 60). With healthcare subsidies a sticking point, essential services face strain (air traffic control, disaster relief), and furloughs loom for federal workers.
Historically, stocks have often drifted higher during shutdowns—but this one hits as labor cools and layoffs risk rises. Translation: volatility premium likely elevated.
Jobs Data: ADP Today, NFP at Risk
- ADP (8:15a ET): Street looking for ~+50K private jobs—could be the last clean labor print for a bit if the shutdown delays Friday’s NFP.
- Fed Lens: September’s cut shifted priority to the labor side. Dallas Fed’s Logan wants more deterioration before additional easing.
- Path of Cuts: Markets price ~40 bps more into year-end; a stronger jobs trajectory could slow that pace.
Earnings & Single-Name Watch
Nike (NKE): Popping premarket after a Q1 beat—wholesale strength and an early nod to CEO Elliott Hill’s turnaround plan despite China softness/tariff pressure.
Conagra (CAG): Headliner for today’s staples read-through.
Commodities Check
- Crude: Red again. OPEC+ eyeing a larger November hike; shutdown overhang dents demand expectations.
- Brent: $65.49 (-0.8%)
- WTI: $61.81 (-0.9%)
- Gold: Safe-haven surge with shutdown risk. Spot tagged a fresh record; futures ripped as well.
- Spot Gold: record high print earlier
- Gold Futures (Dec): peak near the session highs
Index Levels & Playbook
- NQ / $QQQ: $QQQ closed > 600; a 0.5% push takes out the 602.87 ATH. As long as 580 holds, medium-term bull structure intact. Expect headline-driven whips around shutdown updates and labor prints.
- Risk Tone: Precarious tape—fear can flip fast. Keep size disciplined, take bases, Stack Your Gains™.
Crypto & Metals Snapshot:
- BTC: ~$114.4K
- Gold (spot): ~$3,900/oz
- Silver (spot): ~$47.3/oz
Today’s Market-Moving Calendar
- 🇺🇸 OPEC Meeting – 6:00a ET
- 🇺🇸 ADP Employment (Sep) – 8:15a
- 🇺🇸 S&P Global Mfg PMI (Sep) – 9:45a
- 🇺🇸 ISM Mfg PMI / Employment / Prices (Sep) – 10:00a
- 🇺🇸 Construction Spending (Aug) – 10:00a
- 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories – 10:30a
- 🇺🇸 Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) – 1:00p
OP Levels to Watch
- $QQQ: 600.37 close → 602.87 ATH trigger; 580 = bull line in the sand
- NQ Futures: Prior 38% retrace = first defense; loss opens a 24,000 / 50% retest
OP Housekeeping
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