OP Market Outlook: AMD x OpenAI Sparks Record Highs
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both closed at fresh all-time highs yesterday, fueled by a blockbuster announcement between Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and OpenAI.
The deal — which gives AMD a 10% stake in OpenAI in exchange for supplying its next-gen AI chips — could generate tens of billions in annual revenue, sending AMD shares up 23.7% and lifting the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index nearly 3%.
Capital Economics noted, “The AI boom in equities has not run its course,” while Citi analysts warned that profit-taking risks are rising with valuations this elevated.
🧩 Macro Uncertainty: Government Shutdown Continues
The federal shutdown has now stretched into its second week, delaying major economic data releases and clouding the Fed’s ability to gauge rate policy.
Without official data, both investors and policymakers are relying on private reports and surveys, such as the NY Fed’s Consumer Expectations Survey out later today.
Several Fed speakers — Bostic, Bowman, and Kashkari — are also scheduled, though their remarks may carry limited weight without new data.
President Donald Trump hinted at possible negotiations with Democrats over healthcare subsidies, suggesting a potential breakthrough in Washington.
🚗 Tesla’s “Affordable” Model Y?
Reports suggest Tesla could unveil a more affordable version of its Model Y SUV today.
After teasing fans over the weekend with cryptic X posts, it remains unclear if there will be a live event or an online reveal.
While Elon Musk previously scrapped plans for a $25,000 EV, this model is expected to be priced lower using existing platforms — a move that could expand Tesla’s global footprint.
Still, after record Q2 sales driven by expiring tax credits, analysts expect growth to cool in late 2025.
Meanwhile, Ford (F) dipped premarket following reports that a supplier fire may disrupt operations for months.
Constellation Brands (STZ) gained over 3%, as Q2 sales fell less than feared — and beer demand stayed strong despite concerns over immigration policy impacts.
🪙 Gold Hits New Record High
Gold briefly touched a new all-time high near $4,000/oz before pulling back.
Safe-haven demand surged amid U.S. political gridlock and expectations of another Fed rate cut at the October 28–29 meeting.
The FedWatch Tool shows odds favoring a 25-basis-point cut, marking a continuation of the easing cycle begun in September.
Support also came from China’s central bank, which continues to accumulate gold, and rising global fiscal concernsfrom Europe to Japan.
ING analysts highlighted that “institutional inflows and retail demand are both surging.”
🛢 Oil Slips
Oil prices edged slightly lower as traders balanced OPEC+’s smaller-than-expected November output hike with rising global supply expectations.
📅 Today’s Key Data Releases:
🇺🇸 Trade Balance (Aug) — 8:30AM ET
🇺🇸 Exports & Imports (Aug) — 8:30AM ET
🇺🇸 FOMC Speakers: Bostic (10AM), Bowman (10:05AM), Kashkari (11:30AM)
🇺🇸 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook — 12PM ET
🇺🇸 Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) — 1PM ET
🇺🇸 3-Year Note Auction — 1PM ET
🇺🇸 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock — 4:30PM ET
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