The Bearish Weight of a Government Shutdown on the Economy and StocksIntroduction

A U.S. government shutdown is more than a political standoff — it’s a direct shock to the economy, financial markets, and investor confidence. While short-term shutdowns can seem like temporary noise, the truth is they compound systemic risks at a time when…

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Chance of Shutdown

Right now, the probability of at least a short government shutdown is about 60%. Odds have been swinging around the 55–70% range depending on how talks progress, but markets are leaning toward a lapse in funding.

Impact Compared to History

• Economic drag: Every week the government is shut down, GDP takes roughly a 0.15 percentage…

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🔍 Intel & Apple Rumor

• Intel has reportedly approached Apple about a possible investment to support its turnaround plan.
• Talks are said to be in very early stages, and there’s no guarantee of a deal.
• Market speculation also suggests Apple could explore using Intel’s upcoming 14A process node for parts of its future M-series chips.
• Intel stock…

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The OP Playbook: How to Trade ItStrategy Setup

• Before the Event: Expect a volatility spike leading into the keynote. Consider short-term strangles or straddlesto capitalize on the move—but be ready to close quickly.
• As the Event Unfolds: Watch for sharp moves off key reveals. Fast scalp trades or gamma squeezes can be profitable—but require…

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📉 Put–Call Ratio at All-Time Highs: A Correction Signal🔎 What’s Happening

The put–call ratio (PCR), which measures the volume of bearish put options against bullish calls, is sitting at all-time highs. This shows traders are aggressively positioning for downside — a red flag that the market may be on the verge of a correction.

⚠️ Why It… Read more