Why Stocks Can Rise Even in a Government Shutdown

1. Rate Cuts & Fed Expectations
2. The dominant narrative is still “Fed is cutting” or “Fed has room to cut.” A weak economic backdrop gives the Fed cover to ease, and rate cuts are bullish for equities. Traders are already pricing in ~40 bps of easing into year-end.
3. “Bad News = Good News”…

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The Bearish Weight of a Government Shutdown on the Economy and StocksIntroduction

A U.S. government shutdown is more than a political standoff — it’s a direct shock to the economy, financial markets, and investor confidence. While short-term shutdowns can seem like temporary noise, the truth is they compound systemic risks at a time when…

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Chance of Shutdown

Right now, the probability of at least a short government shutdown is about 60%. Odds have been swinging around the 55–70% range depending on how talks progress, but markets are leaning toward a lapse in funding.

Impact Compared to History

• Economic drag: Every week the government is shut down, GDP takes roughly a 0.15 percentage…

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Our NUGT rundown

Support & Resistance

• Immediate resistance: $156–157 (recent intraday highs).
• Next upside magnet: $160 (psychological/round number).
• First support: $151–152 (recent intraday pullback area).
• Secondary support: $147–148 (prior close and pivot zone).
• Deeper support: $142–143 (recent swing low).
• Trend references: 20-day ~ $130,…

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