Friday Market Outlook: Key Updates, Insights, and Opportunities for OP!
Happy Friday, OP Family! As we dive into today’s market session, here’s a roundup of the most important news driving markets, along with some insights to keep you ahead of the curve.
Market Futures and Employment Data in Focus
U.S. stock futures are mixed this morning, with investors awaiting the release of crucial nonfarm payrolls data. As of 03:28 ET (08:28 GMT):
- S&P 500 futures dipped by 10 points (-0.2%)
- Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 66 points (-0.3%)
- Dow futures remained relatively flat
The nonfarm payrolls report, expected to be a key driver of today’s session, is projected to show a gain of 164,000 jobs in December, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%. Average hourly earnings are expected to cool slightly, signaling a shift in the labor market.
A stronger-than-expected jobs number could put upward pressure on 10-year Treasury yields, which recently touched multi-month highs. This may further strengthen the U.S. dollar while weighing on equities. However, ING analysts noted that the data would need to deviate significantly from expectations to materially move markets.
TSMC: Robust Sales Driven by AI Demand
Chipmaking giant TSMC reported stronger-than-expected Q4 sales, totaling T$868.42 billion ($26.36 billion), bolstered by surging demand from the AI industry. December sales alone soared 57.8% YoY, reaching T$278.16 billion ($8.44 billion).
The company’s growth continues to benefit from heightened capital expenditures on AI infrastructure, offsetting sluggish demand in consumer electronics. As the primary supplier for tech leaders like Nvidia (NVDA) and Apple (AAPL), TSMC is well-positioned to maintain this positive momentum heading into 2025.
Tesla: Updated Model Y Debuts in China
Tesla (TSLA) has launched a revamped Model Y in China, its second-largest market, amid fierce competition from domestic EV makers. Priced at 263,500 yuan (a 5.4% increase from the previous version), the new Model Y features:
- A sleek light bar
- Heated/ventilated seats
- A second-row touchscreen
Deliveries are set to begin in March pending regulatory approval. Despite being the world’s best-selling car, Model Y sales have recently softened due to competition in China and weakening EV demand in other regions. Tesla’s push to innovate could help reclaim market share in this critical market.
Oil Prices on a Winning Streak
Crude oil prices are on track for a third consecutive week of gains, driven by severe winter conditions across the U.S. and Europe. Over the past three weeks:
- Brent crude: +6%
- WTI crude: +7%
Cold temperatures are expected to persist in central and eastern U.S., as well as parts of Europe, boosting heating demand and supporting prices.
Delta Air Lines: Record-Breaking Results
Delta Air Lines (DAL) posted record Q4 and full-year 2024 financials, with key metrics including:
- Q4 revenue: $15.6 billion
- 2024 revenue: $61.6 billion
- 2024 pre-tax income: $5 billion
Looking ahead to 2025, Delta projects earnings exceeding $7.35 per share and free cash flow of $4 billion. Q1 2025 guidance forecasts 7-9% revenue growth, with earnings per share between $0.70-$1.00.
Key Analyst Downgrade: AMD
Goldman Sachs downgraded AMD (AMD) from “Buy” to “Neutral,” lowering the price target from $175 to $129. Analysts cited concerns over rising competition from Arm-based CPUs and increased spending pressures. Goldman believes AMD’s stock may remain range-bound until the market regains confidence in its growth trajectory.
Opportunities and Insights for Today’s Session
- TSLA: Anticipate a melt-up as markets approach the inauguration, driven by Tesla’s innovation and geopolitical focus.
- DAL: Strong Q4 results may create bullish momentum.
- AAPL & NVDA: Watch for movements tied to TSMC’s strong earnings report.
- Crypto: Rising social sentiment around XRP and Ethereum could create scalp opportunities.
The OptionsPlayers Systems continue to deliver consistent results for our students, proving once again that disciplined trading pays off. As always, stay vigilant, keep stacking your gains, and leverage the insights from the OP community to capitalize on today’s opportunities.
See you all in chat!
– Team OP
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