OP Wire 10/6 (OP – Lite)

By Steve

Markets Open Higher Despite D.C. Stalemate

U.S. stock futures ticked higher Monday as traders looked past the ongoing federal government shutdown and focused on what’s ahead — a Federal Reserve rate decision and the kickoff of Q3 earnings season later this month.

At 03:10 ET (07:10 GMT):

Dow Futures +86 pts (+0.2%)
S&P 500 Futures +20 pts (+0.3%)
Nasdaq 100 Futures +103 pts (+0.4%)

Friday’s session saw volatility with both the S&P 500 and Dow closing at fresh record highs, while the Nasdaq slipped 0.3% on weakness in Applied Materials (AMAT) after the chipmaker projected a $600 million revenue hit for FY 2026.

Shutdown Fallout: “Darkening Storm Clouds”

The prolonged government shutdown has now delayed key data — including nonfarm payrolls — forcing traders to rely on private sector indicators that hint at slowing growth and sticky inflation.

Analysts at Vital Knowledge said these trends suggest “darkening storm clouds” ahead.
With the Fed’s October rate decision approaching, the absence of official data makes every private reading count. The CME FedWatch Tool still prices in another rate cut, even as officials weigh the inflation risk.

Meanwhile, a White House official warned that mass federal layoffs could begin soon if talks remain deadlocked. The current stalemate stems from partisan clashes over healthcare assurances — a political flashpoint that has markets on edge.

Earnings Watch: Constellation Brands (STZ)

After the bell today, Constellation Brands reports quarterly results.
The beverage giant missed expectations last quarter and continues to face pressure from tariffs on aluminum, slowing consumer spending, and weak beer demand among Hispanic consumers — partly tied to new immigration restrictions dampening consumption patterns.

The key will be whether management guides to a turnaround in sales momentum heading into the holidays.

Global Spotlight: Japan’s Historic Shift

Asian markets rallied after Japan’s Sanae Takaichi — known for her fiscal-dove stance — won leadership of the Liberal Democratic Party, clearing the way to become Japan’s first female prime minister.

Her pro-stimulus agenda, focused on tax relief and spending, sent the Nikkei to record highs overnight. Traders expect Japan to remain accommodative and hold off further BoJ rate hikes, reinforcing global risk appetite.

Energy: OPEC+ Keeps It Tight

Crude oil rebounded sharply after OPEC+ surprised with a smaller-than-expected 137 K bpd production hike for November — well below the 500 K bpd many feared.
This offered relief to traders worried about an oversupplied market. The alliance has already added 2.7 M bpd this year, slowly unwinding pandemic-era cuts while balancing fragile demand.

Tech in Focus — $QQQ Still Hovering at All-Time Highs

Despite Friday’s slight dip (-0.42% to 603.18), $QQQ continues to hold above the key 600 psychological level, showing buyers still in control.
Watch:

Support: 590 – 580 zone
Resistance: All-time highs near 605 – 610

If 600 holds, bulls remain firmly in charge. A break below 590 could trigger short-term momentum selling.

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