OP Wire 2/24 (OP – Lite)

By Steve

Friday saw a brutal sell-off across markets as fresh economic data reignited fears of slowing growth and persistent inflation, driving traders into safer assets. The uncertainty heading into the weekend—fueled by potential policy shifts from the Trump administration and looming tariff concerns—led to accelerated selling into the close.

Dow Jones: -748.63 points (-1.69%) to 43,428.02
S&P 500: -1.71% to 6,013.13
Nasdaq Composite: -2.2% to 19,524.01

The S&P 500 suffered a 1.7% weekly loss, while the Dow and Nasdaq each dropped 2.5%, extending a turbulent two-day stretch.

What’s Fueling the Fear?

Consumer Confidence Plunges – The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell nearly 10% to 64.7, as inflation concerns mount over new tariffs.
Inflation Worries Intensify – The five-year inflation outlook hit 3.5%—the highest since 1995.
Housing Market Struggles – Existing home sales dropped to 4.08 million units, a bigger decline than expected.
Service Sector Contraction – The US services PMI dipped into contraction territory for February.

Big Week Ahead: Key Data & Fed Expectations

The upcoming week will be critical for traders, with major economic releases that could shape market direction:

Tuesday: Consumer Confidence Index
Thursday: Q4 GDP (Revised), Durable Goods Orders, Weekly Jobless Claims
Friday: Core PCE Price Index (The Fed’s preferred inflation measure)

Despite recent CPI data coming in hotter than expected, some analysts believe core PCE inflation may not be as alarming, meaning the Fed is still on track for a September rate cut.

“The bigger picture is that progress on lowering inflation has stalled, with potential new tariffs adding to the risk,” said Investec economist Philip Shaw.

Nvidia Earnings: The Market’s Main Event

All eyes are on Nvidia (NVDA) as the AI chip leader prepares to report earnings Wednesday after the close.

Revenue Estimate: $38.32B (+73% YoY)
Net Income Projection: $21.08B (vs. $12.84B last year)
Blackwell Line Sales Forecast: Raised from $5B to $9B

UBS maintains a $185 price target, citing stronger-than-expected supply chain improvements. Expect heightened volatility around NVDA as traders react to results.

Other Key Earnings to Watch:

Wednesday: AI, NVDA, SNOW
Other Notables: HD, CRM, HPQ, INTU

Technical Breakdown: Levels to Watch

Nasdaq 100 (NQ): Can Buyers Hold the 21650 Level?

Last week, buyers initially held support at 22100, but Thursday and Friday’s price action flipped control to sellers.

By Friday, aggressive selling broke below 22200, triggering a trend day move to 21652.75, marking the week’s low.

Key Levels for This Week:

Bullish Scenario: Buyers must defend 21650 to push for 22100, 22320, and 22450.
Bearish Scenario: A breakdown below 21650 could send price tumbling to 21500, 21000, and 20850.

With price still in a multi-month range, the intermediate trend remains neutral—until a decisive breakout or breakdown occurs.

Final Thoughts: Stay Sharp in This Volatile Market

With tariffs, inflation concerns, and Fed speculation all colliding, expect heightened volatility and fast market moves. Keep an eye on major support and resistance levels, trade with discipline, and avoid overexposure ahead of Nvidia’s big earnings report.

Trade smart, stack your gains, and stay ahead of the game!

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