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Futures & Market Sentiment
- U.S. stock futures are pointing lower this morning as investors brace for:
- Trump’s tariff announcement on automotive imports
- A fresh wave of economic data
- As of 04:28 ET (08:28 GMT):
- Dow Futures: Down 113 points (-0.3%)
- S&P 500 Futures: Down 21 points (-0.4%)
- Nasdaq 100 Futures: Down 113 points (-0.6%)
Last session, Wall Street closed lower amid concerns that Trump’s new 25% tariffs on imported cars and light trucks (effective April 3, with auto parts tariffs following on May 3) would weigh on growth and fuel inflation. Despite some optimism—investors still hope that the final trade agenda won’t be as grim—caution remains as recent data showed weaker-than-expected consumer spending and rising underlying prices.
Trump’s Tariff Announcement & Trade Tensions
- Trump’s Auto Tariffs:
- Trump confirmed new tariffs on global auto imports not manufactured in the U.S.
- His administration is expected to roll out additional reciprocal tariffs next week, potentially targeting around 15 countries, though a Wall Street Journal report hints at a broader scope, including a flat 20% tariff on all countries with a trade deficit against the U.S.
- Trump claims these measures are designed to correct trade imbalances, fund proposed tax cuts, and drive domestic manufacturing—but critics warn of short-term inflation and higher car prices.
- Canadian Response:
- Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has warned that no response is off the table. Carney has stated that the longstanding economic ties with the U.S. are effectively over, signaling potential retaliatory measures from Canada.
Key Economic Data & Sentiment
- PCE Price Index:
- The personal consumption expenditures index, a critical inflation gauge, is due for release. Expectations are for February’s headline and core PCE to hold steady, though the core measure may show slight acceleration.
- Consumer Sentiment:
- Recent data indicate a significant drop in consumer confidence, with a 12% plunge in March driven by inflation fears.
- Other Economic Metrics:
- Reports show U.S. consumer spending in February was below expectations and a survey of 12-month inflation expectations has spiked.
- Notable Economic Data Releases Today:
- Tuesday: JOLTS
- Wednesday: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
- Thursday: Jobless Claims
- Friday: Non-Farm Payrolls, Powell Speech
Other Market Movers & Headlines
- Corporate Earnings & IPOs:
- Lululemon (NASDAQ: LULU) is set to report its quarterly earnings after the bell. Keep an eye on executive commentary regarding discretionary spending amid these tariff worries.
- The pricing for the Nvidia-backed CoreWeave IPO is expected later today. CoreWeave, which secured an $11.9B contract with OpenAI, could raise up to $3B, testing investor appetite in the AI space.
- Additional News:
- Elon Musk’s xAI Buys X for $45 Billion:
- Musk’s AI startup acquired his social media platform X in an all-stock deal.
- Egg Prices Drop:
- Recovery in chicken flocks is driving egg prices down significantly.
- FDA Coffee Recall:
- Thousands of pounds of ground coffee mislabeled as decaf have been recalled in 15 states.
- Neuralink Trademark Filings:
- Neuralink is seeking to trademark “telepathy,” “blindsight,” and “telekinesis” for its new products.
- QVC Group Layoffs:
- QVC Group is laying off approximately 900 employees as part of a merger with HSN and a strategic push into streaming.
- Elon Musk’s xAI Buys X for $45 Billion:
Technical Focus: $NQ
- Recent Action:
- Last week, the near-term range high was around 20,150. If sellers fail to defend this level, price could test 20,500-20,900; if they hold, expect moves down toward 19,650, 19,400, and 19,100.
- Weekly Outlook:
- For this week, key focus is on the 19350 level (significant recent low).
- Downside: If buyers fail to defend 19350, we could see tests of 19,000 (Sept 2024 low) and 18,500 (yearly support).
- Upside: If 19350 holds, price might rally to 19,900, 20,150, and 20,500.
- For this week, key focus is on the 19350 level (significant recent low).
Quick Reference Levels:
- Upside: 19,900 | 20,150 | 20,500
- Downside: 19,350 | 19,000 | 18,500
Final Thoughts & Trade Ideas
The market remains in a state of flux as tariff threats, inflation data, and a slew of corporate news continue to drive volatility. With traders still assessing the impact of Trump’s aggressive trade policies, our focus will remain on key support/resistance levels and real-time economic data.
Our focus today: Looking for opportunities in tech, consumer, and trading names that can bounce amid these conditions. Swing Trade chat, AC&I, and Secret Sauce OP systems continue to pay daily so lean on them accordingly!
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