Tariff Whiplash, Market Snapback, and What Comes Next for Traders
The market delivered fireworks yesterday — and OP members cleaned up. But as we all know, this isn’t the time to get lazy. With tariff policy on the seesaw, today’s economic data and technical levels will determine whether we keep surging… or snap back into the bearish structure that’s dominated for the past month.
1. Futures Slide After Monster Rally
U.S. stock futures are pulling back in the early morning hours despite Trump’s surprise 90-day tariff pause for most countries.
- Dow Futures: -400 pts (-1.0%)
- S&P 500 Futures: -73 pts (-1.3%)
- Nasdaq Futures: -345 pts (-1.8%)
The dollar is also giving back overnight gains. This comes just one day after a massive surge across the board, echoing the October 2008 relief rally:
- Dow Jones: +2,963 pts (+7.9%)
- S&P 500: +474 pts (+9.5%)
- Nasdaq: +1,857 pts (+12.2%)
Almost every name in the S&P 500 closed green. It was a trader’s dream… especially for OP members who caught it early in chat. Shoutout to the members who emailed in with screenshots — some booked six-figure days off the back of our morning tickers.
2. Trump’s Shocking Tariff Reversal – But Not for China
Trump hit the brakes on his global tariff blitz — sort of. In a social media post, he revealed a 90-day pause on sweeping tariffs for several U.S. trading partners. But it came with a twist:
- A new “Reciprocal Tariff” of 10% will apply to most exempt countries
- Existing 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum, and auto imports remain
- China is excluded from the pause — and instead hit with a hike to 125% tariffs
Beijing retaliated swiftly, rolling out 84% tariffs on U.S. goods. China’s Ministry of Commerce made it clear: they’re ready to “fight to the end.”
The situation escalated quickly and has left markets on edge. Analysts warn this may not be the final stance. History shows we’ve seen “pauses” before — only to have the tariffs reintroduced days later.
3. Market Uncertainty Remains Elevated
U.S. Treasury yields are pulling back after a solid 10-year auction, but the bond market volatility this week was enough to rattle even the White House.
“Trump might’ve withstood the stock sell-off, but once bonds started getting smoked too… it was only a matter of time,” said Capital Economics.
Expectations now shift to the March CPI release as traders look for clues on inflation trends before and after the tariff drama.
4. Inflation Data Ahead – CPI in Focus
Here’s what traders are watching this morning:
- CPI (March): Expected to cool slightly to 2.5% YoY (vs. 2.8% in Feb)
- Core CPI (March): Expected at 3.0% YoY, and 0.3% MoM
With tariffs now shifting gears, inflation expectations have picked up. The University of Michigan survey showed long-run expectations back above 4%. That’s a key warning for traders betting on the Fed cutting rates soon.
Also watch the PCE Price Index and today’s FOMC commentary — the Fed is walking a tightrope between inflation risk and slowing growth.
5. China’s Economy Feels the Pressure
Soft Chinese inflation data suggests Trump’s tariffs are already hitting the world’s second-largest economy. Chinese policymakers are expected to roll out new monetary and fiscal stimulus, but that won’t ease global fears anytime soon.
With China being the largest oil importer, the implications for crude are also showing up…
6. Oil Slips as Tariff Worries Return
Crude prices are down again:
- Brent: -2.1% to $64.13
- WTI: -2.0% to $61.12
This follows a 4% rally yesterday after the tariff pause headlines, but with China still facing 125% U.S. tariffs, energy bulls remain hesitant. Any global growth slowdown here will likely pressure oil demand going forward.
7. $QQQ Levels to Watch
The $QQQ tech index pulled a full head-fake yesterday — rallying to 443.14, then fading all the way back to 416. It’s clear we’re at a make-or-break moment.
Resistance to Watch:
- 480
- 484
- 492 (200-day moving average) – only 5.6% away
Reclaiming the 200-day will shift momentum significantly, opening the door to squeeze setups.
Support Levels:
- 460
- 450
- 443
- If we break back below 443, 430 and 420 open up, followed by medium-term risk at 400
Until clarity comes on trade or inflation, volatility remains king.
Today’s Key Economic Events
🇺🇸 CPI & Core CPI (March) – 8:30AM ET
🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Claims – 8:30AM ET
🇺🇸 FOMC Member Bowman Speaks – 10:00AM ET
🇺🇸 WASDE Report – 12:00PM ET
🇺🇸 FOMC Member Harker Speaks – 12:30PM ET
🇺🇸 30-Year Bond Auction – 1:00PM ET
🇺🇸 Federal Budget Balance – 2:00PM ET
🇺🇸 Fed Balance Sheet Update – 4:30PM ET
Don’t Miss Today’s OptionsPlayers Live Market Analysis
Join Tracks, the creator of the AC&I Trading System, as he breaks down what he’s seeing in this volatile market and how we’re positioning for what’s next. From CPI to tariffs to tech — you need a system now more than ever.
Live Session Link:
https://us06web.zoom.us/j/84253533741?pwd=XYibRJUbso2Qvxi7bqT4Lzy9kaINRa.1
ICYMI – Watch Yesterday’s Market Breakdown
Recap the trades, the strategy, and why we nailed the bounce: Watch Here
Yesterday was a prime example of why you don’t gamble… you stack and protect using the OP system. If you don’t have OP Lifers yet, email Steve at steve@optionsplayers.com to get onboard.
See you in chat with today’s upgrades, downgrades, and trade plans.
Stacking gains is what we do.
— Team OptionsPlayers
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