Tariffs, Tech Trouble & Bank Earnings – Friday Market Breakdown
Another high-volatility session is in the books, and it’s clear: this market is hypersensitive to every tweet, tariff, and tick. The $QQQ tech index pulled back 4.25% on Thursday as the U.S.-China trade war escalated yet again, shaking investor confidence after a temporary reprieve.
1. Tariff Drama Returns – China Hit with 145%, Retaliates with 34%
Just one day after markets cheered Trump’s 90-day tariff delay for most countries, he raised the heat on China — announcing an increase in tariffs to 145% on all Chinese imports. The White House clarified that this figure includes the previously implemented 20% fentanyl-related tariff hike.
In response, China launched 34% retaliatory tariffs, intensifying concerns about policy instability and pushing investors back into defensive mode.
Even with March CPI coming in cooler than expected at 2.4% vs. 2.5%, the market couldn’t hold Wednesday’s bullish momentum, especially after $QQQ’s 12% surge the day prior.
2. Today’s Key Directional Catalysts: Big Bank Earnings, PPI, and Sentiment Data
Markets are locked in on:
- Big Bank Earnings (JPM, MS, WFC, BLK)
- March PPI & Core PPI
- University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment + Inflation Expectations
$QQQ Technical Levels to Watch:
- Support: 430, 423
- Break below 423 risks resuming the correction, with potential retest of 400
- Resistance: 460, 468, 485, and 492 (200-day MA)
We’re 5.8% from reclaiming the 200-day, which could shift momentum toward a more bullish bias, but we need to see strength and volume.
3. Friday’s Economic Calendar
🇺🇸 PPI (Mar) @ 8:30AM ET
🇺🇸 Core PPI (Mar) @ 8:30AM ET
🇺🇸 Michigan 1Y & 5Y Inflation Expectations (Apr) @ 10AM ET
🇺🇸 Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr) @ 10AM ET
🇺🇸 FOMC Member Williams Speaks @ 11AM ET
🇺🇸 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Counts @ 1PM ET
🇺🇸 Total Rig Count @ 1PM ET
4. Premarket Movers – Bank Earnings in the Spotlight
JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
+2.0% after strong Q1 earnings. CEO Jamie Dimon remained cautious on the broader economic outlook.
Morgan Stanley (MS)
+1.5% after posting solid results driven by investment banking and wealth management.
Wells Fargo (WFC)
+1.4% after beating on EPS but missing on revenue due to higher rates impacting operations.
BlackRock (BLK)
+1.3% as AUM hit a record high despite a 4% dip in quarterly profit.
Bank of NY Mellon (BK)
+2.5% after reporting a 17% YoY profit jump on increased fee income.
5. Tech and Consumer Movers
Apple (AAPL)
+0.2% bounce after recent 12% slide over China tariff exposure.
Tesla (TSLA)
-0.4% after suspending new orders for imported S/X models in China.
Verizon (VZ)
+1.0% after Evercore upgraded the stock citing its defensive profile amid tariff volatility.
American Express (AXP)
+0.7% after Bank of America upgraded it to “Buy” on favorable valuation setup.
6. Sentiment on the Edge
Despite a temporary tariff delay, Thursday’s gains were largely erased following Trump’s clarification that tariffs on Chinese imports are up 145%. This is driving renewed fear and caution into the market, even as inflation came in lighter.
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey due today will be key. March’s reading showed households were rattled by tariffs, with long-run inflation expectations jumping above 4%.
Americans are increasingly cautious, cutting back on nonessential spending and watching for further economic fallout from the policy instability in D.C.
7. Gold Soars to New Record High
Spot Gold surged +0.9% to $3,204.94/oz
Gold Futures (June) +1.4% to $3,223.41/oz
Gold continues to crush as volatility and fear fuel safe-haven flows. Alongside the yen, gold is the top outperformer this week.
8. Oil Holds, But Logs Another Red Week
- Brent Crude: +0.9% to $63.92
- WTI: +1.0% to $60.69
Despite Friday’s modest uptick, both benchmarks are on pace to close down ~4% for the week, adding to the 11% loss last week.
With China facing steep U.S. tariffs and being the world’s #1 crude importer, concerns around global demand persist.
Final Thoughts & Chat Alert
Yesterday’s bond auction alert hit perfectly, and tech surged shortly after — giving us one more win in an already massive week for OP members. Expect a weaker open today but keep your eyes open for late-day strength.
If you’re not set up with OP Lifers, now’s the time.
Email Steve at steve@optionsplayers.com — let’s get you the tools to keep stacking and protecting your gains.
Let’s Stack to Close the Week
Big earnings. High-impact data. Trade war headlines.
This is what we live for — and our systems are built for this.
See you in chat with the full trade breakdown, upgrades, downgrades, and a chart-by-chart setup list.
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— Team OptionsPlayers
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