Futures Slip Slightly as Traders Digest Trade Progress, Credit Downgrade
U.S. stock futures edged lower early Tuesday as markets took a breather after shrugging off last week’s Moody’s U.S. credit downgrade and riding high on optimism around global trade talks.
- Dow Futures: -75 pts (-0.2%)
- S&P 500 Futures: -20 pts (-0.3%)
- Nasdaq 100 Futures: -95 pts (-0.4%)
Despite the slight dip, stocks remain buoyed by last week’s “Big 3” bullish catalysts:
- U.S.-China tariff pause
- Cooling inflation data
- Strong April-end earnings
“Nothing happened Monday to derail the upward momentum,” said analysts at Vital Knowledge.
No New Deals Expected at G7 – Eyes on Japan
According to Reuters, the U.S. Treasury Department does not plan to announce any new trade deals at this week’s G7 meeting in Alberta, Canada. They’ve also signaled they won’t sign any joint communiqués unless it aligns with U.S. interests.
- Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent will meet with Japanese officials for Round 3 of trade talks later this week.
- Bessent is also expected to urge G7 allies to confront the spillover effects of China’s non-market economy practices.
Investors are watching closely, as Trump’s 90-day global tariff pause ends in July. Any new deals—or lack thereof—could shift sentiment quickly.
Earnings Watch: Home Depot Tops Revenue, Misses Slightly on EPS
Home Depot (HD) reported Q1 results this morning:
- Revenue: $39.86B (vs. $39.25B expected) → +9.4% YoY
- Adjusted EPS: $3.56 (vs. $3.59 expected)
- U.S. Comparable Sales: +0.2%
- Total Comparable Sales: -0.3%
FX headwinds impacted comps by ~70 basis points. Shares rose +2.2% premarket.
Notably, HD’s CFO said they won’t raise prices despite tariffs, contrasting Walmart’s recent comments about price hikes due to trade levies.
Keep an eye on this—it could set the tone for consumer discretionary sector sentiment this week.
China Cuts Lending Rates to Boost Economy
China slashed its 1-year loan prime rate to 3.0% and its 5-year rate to 3.5%, marking the first cuts since October.
- This signals Beijing’s growing concern over sluggish economic activity and U.S. tariff pressure
- Analysts noted the small size of the rate cut may reflect cautious policymaking amid uncertainty around U.S. relations
Universal 10% tariffs and 20% fentanyl-related duties still remain in place despite the recent U.S.-China tariff de-escalation.
Oil Slips as Iran, Russia-Ukraine Talks Unfold
Oil pulled back as traders weighed:
- Stalling progress on the U.S.-Iran nuclear deal
- Talks of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, initiated by Trump’s call with Putin
- Brent: $65.16 (-0.6%)
- WTI: $61.75 (-0.6%)
Iran doubled down on its non-negotiable uranium enrichment, while Trump said ceasefire talks with Russia and Ukraine had begun—though the Kremlin noted they would take time.
$QQQ Technical Overview – Nearing All-Time Highs
- Close: 522.01 (+0.1%)
- All-Time Highs: ~3.5% away
- Support: 515/514, then 500
- Downside Gap Risk: ~493 if 500 fails
A break over all-time highs historically triggers “buy everything” mode—watch for a squeeze if momentum continues.
Today’s market is light on data, so expect $HD and $PANW earnings to guide direction.
Today’s Key Economic Events
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- 4:30PM ET – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock
- 7PM ET – FOMC Member Daly Speaks
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