OP Wire 5/27 (OP – Lite)

We hope you enjoyed the Memorial Day weekend and took time to honor those who made the ultimate sacrifice.

Now, back to business… and what a loaded week it’s shaping up to be.

Markets were closed Monday, but Friday’s sharp selloff—over a 2% drop across all major indices—remains fresh on traders’ minds. The selling pressure came after President Trump announced a potential 50% tariff on EU imports starting June 1, citing frustration over trade negotiations. However, in typical fashion, Trump pivoted by Sunday evening after a call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The tariff threat is now postponed until July 9, providing short-term relief to markets.

Von der Leyen struck an optimistic tone, stating on X that the EU is ready to negotiate “swiftly and decisively.” Still, this back-and-forth reinforces just how volatile and unpredictable Trump’s trade stance remains, which continues to rattle already fragile investor sentiment.

Today, expect added attention to commentary from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and NY Fed President John Williams, both speaking after several Fed officials last week flagged tariffs as a dual risk to inflation and economic growth. Morgan Stanley summed up sentiment clearly: “The right response is to wait.”


Nvidia Aims to Stay Alive in China

Nvidia (NVDA) is planning to launch a lower-spec AI chip in China as early as June, per Reuters. This chip will use traditional GDDR7 memory instead of the more powerful HBM and come with reduced performance specs. The move is a strategic response to U.S. export restrictions that have slashed Nvidia’s China market share from 95% in 2022 to just 50% today.

Despite the drop, CEO Jensen Huang remains bullish on China, calling it a potential $50 billion market. However, Huawei continues to chip away at Nvidia’s dominance, gaining traction with its own homegrown AI chips.


Tesla Sales Plunge in Europe

Fresh data shows that Tesla (TSLA) registrations dropped 49% year-over-year in April across the EU, UK, and EFTA, falling to just 7,261 units. Market share also nearly halved to 0.7%.

Ironically, Europe’s EV market is still growing—up 34% YoY—but Tesla is clearly losing ground, not only to European automakers with fresher EV models but also to increasing Chinese EV exports despite higher tariffs. Some analysts believe an ongoing boycott driven by Musk’s political presence may be fueling the decline.


Bitcoin Pulls Back Before Major Vegas Event

After touching a new all-time high near $112K last ThursdayBitcoin has pulled back slightly as traders eye today’s kickoff of the Bitcoin 2025 Conference in Las Vegas. This year’s event is the biggest yet—over 30,000 attendees, 400+ speakers, and 5,000+ companies expected. Eyes are on regulatory updates, institutional adoption insights, and macro sentiment shaping BTC’s next leg.


Crude Oil Calm Before the OPEC+ Storm

Oil is flat ahead of this week’s OPEC+ meeting, with Brent at $64.08 and WTI at $61.47 early Tuesday. Reports suggest OPEC+ may increase production by 411,000 barrels/day in July, continuing to unwind prior cuts. No final decision has been made.


NQ Outlook | Technical Levels to Watch

Last week, NQ hovered near all-time highs, peaking around 21300 before sellers stepped in mid-week. Friday’s low came in at 20727, and the week closed with an inside bar, reflecting uncertainty.

Key Pivot: 21000

  • If buyers reclaim and hold above: Targets are 21500, then 22000.
  • If sellers dominate below 21000: Downside levels open up to 20700, 20500, and 20300.

Economic Events & Data to Watch

Tuesday, May 28

  • 4:00AM ET: FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
  • 8:30AM ET: Core & Durable Goods Orders (Apr)
  • 9:00AM ET: S&P/CS HPI Composite (Mar)
  • 10:00AM ET: CB Consumer Confidence (May)
  • 11:30AM ET: Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2)
  • 2:00PM ET: 2Y Treasury Note Auction
  • 8:00PM ET: FOMC Member Williams Speaks
  • 10:10PM ET: Fed Waller Speaks

Upcoming Highlights

  • Wednesday: FOMC Minutes + Earnings from NVDA and AI
  • Thursday: GDP & Jobless Claims
  • Friday: PCE Inflation + Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Futures Action | Bullish Start

Overnight, QQQ futures are up over +1%, currently ~514.5, putting us only 2% away from the 523 resistance. Watch support levels closely: 508, 506, and the psychological 500—a breach of which could trigger a fast drop to 493.


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