Today’s spotlight will be firmly on Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) as the tech titan reports its highly anticipated first-quarter earnings after the bell. Widely considered the bellwether for the AI and semiconductor sector, NVDA is projected to post $43 billion in revenue, up a staggering 66% year-over-year, fueled by insatiable demand from AI hyperscalers building out cloud infrastructure and data centers.
But Wall Street’s focus won’t be on the blowout numbers alone — guidance will be key. NVDA continues to face headwinds from tightened U.S. export controls to China, a crucial market for advanced chips. At the same time, a sector shift from AI training to inference, which demands less powerful chips, and the rise of leaner AI models, could moderate future revenue growth. Despite these concerns, NVDA’s role in powering the AI revolution remains undeniable.
Traders are also cautious heading into the print. NVDA stock has historically underperformed in the days following earnings over the past three quarters — largely a result of sky-high expectations. Defensive options flow into semiconductor ETFs like SMH signals potential volatility ahead, regardless of the result.
NVDA Earnings Aftermath = Market Direction
The $QQQ closed yesterday at 521.22, and if NVDA delivers a bullish surprise, we could quickly reclaim the 523 level, igniting fresh momentum. With sentiment teetering and few earnings left to report, NVDA’s print will be the single most important catalyst for short-term direction — and could drive the QQQ to new all-time highs. Shorts should be cautious here.
Other Key Earnings Today
- Macy’s (NYSE: M)
- Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF)
- Dick’s Sporting Goods (NYSE: DKS)
Economic Calendar (All Times ET)
- 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Kashkari speaks – 4:00 AM
- 🇺🇸 OPEC+ Meeting begins – 6:00 AM
- 🇺🇸 FOMC Member Williams speaks – 9:00 AM
- 🇺🇸 5-Year Treasury Note Auction – 12:00 PM
- 🇺🇸 FOMC Meeting Minutes – 2:00 PM
- 🇺🇸 NVDA Earnings Report – 4:20 PM
- 🇺🇸 API Weekly Crude Oil Report – 4:30 PM
Global Bond Market Pressure
Japanese bond markets showed signs of strain as demand for Japan’s 40-year bond slumped to its lowest since November. The bid-to-cover ratio fell to 2.2, down sharply from 2.9 in March, reflecting broader concerns over sovereign debt.
In the U.S., the Treasury’s recent $16 billion sale of 20-year bonds also saw lukewarm interest, with investors increasingly cautious about America’s growing deficit. The situation is amplified by Congressional wrangling over tax and spending bills that could worsen the fiscal picture. This comes in the wake of Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, following similar moves by Fitch and S&P.
Today, the U.S. will auction 2-year floating rate and 5-year notes, while Germany auctions 15-year bonds.
Oil Prices Tick Higher on Sanction Threats
Crude futures edged up early Wednesday amid mounting geopolitical risks:
- Brent +0.6% to $63.96
- WTI +0.7% to $61.29
Comments from former President Donald Trump, warning that Putin is “playing with fire” and threatening fresh sanctions on Russia, have raised concerns over potential disruptions in global supply. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is set to meet this weekend, and markets are pricing in a possible production boost as the group continues unwinding prior output cuts.
Also on watch: API’s weekly oil inventory report, delayed due to the U.S. Memorial Day holiday, will be released at 4:30 PM ET.
Corporate Leadership Shift at Stellantis
In auto news, Stellantis (NYSE: STLA) has named Antonio Filosa as its new CEO, replacing Carlos Tavares. The change comes after declining profits and sales raised shareholder concerns. Filosa, who has been with the company for 25+ years and recently served as COO of the Americas, will assume full CEO authority immediately and is set to be formally elected at an upcoming extraordinary shareholder meeting.
OptionsPlayers Highlights
- 👏 AAPL play yesterday paid beautifully, with our posted entry in chat yielding a nearly $3 upside move.
- 📺 Secret Sauce Live Stream is today — join us in chat and on the stream.
- 🔥 Today is all about NVDA. If you’re not watching this, you’re not trading smart.
📣 REMINDER TO MEMBERS: Stay watching chat for live updates throughout the day. NVDA’s report will determine sentiment for the rest of the week — possibly the month.
Stack Your Gains™
– Team OP
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