Markets closed strong Thursday as Wall Street cheered signs of a potential thaw in global trade tensions, fueled by a new U.S.–U.K. trade deal that may be the first domino in a broader de-escalation.
While a baseline 10% U.S. tariff on British imports remains, the U.K. has agreed to lower its duties to 1.8% from 5.1% and expand access for U.S. goods. Notably, Rolls-Royce (RYCEY) aircraft parts were exempted from U.S. tariffs, sending airline stocks soaring.
- Delta (DAL) jumped 7.2%
- The S&P 500 airline index popped 5.4%
- Boeing (BA) shares climbed as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed a $10 billion U.K. aircraft orderis on the books
Not Much Meat, But Enough to Feed Bulls
Trump touted the U.K. deal as a major win—but analysts are calling it light on substance and more of a strategic outline. Still, in a market built on expectations and positioning, even small steps like this can ignite strong rallies.
Paul Ashworth (Capital Economics) put it bluntly:
“This rush to demonstrate progress on ‘deals’ reveals a rising desperation to roll back tariffs before they hit GDP and inflation.”
And he’s right. Tariff pressures remain high. Despite delays, we’re still looking at:
- Universal 10% tariffs on most imports
- Product-specific levies on steel, aluminum, and auto parts
- Trump’s 50% tariff wave from April still partially intact
All Eyes Shift to China Talks This Weekend
Next up: the U.S.–China face-off in Geneva, where Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and trade chief Jamieson Greerwill sit down with Chinese officials.
Here’s what we know:
- China was NOT included in the recent tariff pause
- They still face a 145% tariff wall
- Beijing responded with 125% levies on U.S. goods
Trump says “substantive talks” are coming—but Beijing isn’t budging easily. Chinese officials are calling the U.S. strategy “coercive” and unsustainable. If talks break down, next week could bring a sharp reversal.
Nvidia Bends to Washington with AI Chip Downgrade
Per Reuters, Nvidia (NVDA) will release a downgraded H20 chip for Chinese customers in an effort to comply with tightened export restrictions.
- H20 specs will be scaled down
- Used by Baidu, Alibaba, and DeepSeek
- A direct result of Trump’s updated AI export restrictions
This development impacts not just Nvidia—but the entire AI and semiconductor sector dealing with policy-driven headwinds.
Oil Prices Climb But Stay Near Lows
Oil got a lift from both the U.K. deal and upcoming China talks, though prices remain near 4-year lows:
- Brent: $63.60 (+1.2%)
- WTI: $60.69 (+1.3%)
- Both contracts rose nearly 3% on Thursday
Still, global demand fears persist, so don’t get too comfortable if you’re long crude.
Technical View: QQQ Clears Key Hurdle
This week was a clear win for bulls:
$QQQ broke out above its 200-day moving average (near 490)—a major shift in structure.
- Below 480 = market leans bearish
- Above 490 = bullish continuation
- Next psychological level: 500
We expect sympathy momentum to flow into squeeze candidates with strong setups, data, and catalysts. Watch your entries and protect your gains.
Today’s Economic Data:
🇺🇸 Fed Supervision Vice Chair Barr Speaks – 6:00 AM ET
🇺🇸 FOMC Member Williams – 6:15 AM ET
🇺🇸 Fed Governor Waller – 11:00 AM ET
🇺🇸 Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count – 1:00 PM ET
OP System Shoutout:
Yesterday, chat scalped DIS and QQQ puts for clean gains—textbook trades.
Our OP systems crushed again, and that’s why structure always wins.
Heads up for next week:
China + Tariffs = Market driver #1. Expect volatility around any headlines.
Be patient. Stay disciplined. See you in chat.
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