OP Wire 6/20 (OP – Lite)

By Steve

Markets opened the day on edge as the Israel–Iran air war pushes into its second week with no signs of de-escalation. Tensions are mounting, oil remains volatile, and U.S. investors are now watching closely for President Trump’s next move, with a decision on U.S. involvement expected within two weeks.

🔥 GEOPOLITICS IN FOCUS

The Dow is down 89 points, S&P 500 futures are off 10, and Nasdaq futures slipped 32 in early premarket action. While Wall Street was closed Thursday for Juneteenth, global markets dropped and the U.S. dollar strengthened as safe-haven demand kicked in.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed President Trump is weighing U.S. air support for Israel’s bombardments of Iranian nuclear targets. The two-week pause signals an opening for diplomacy, but Trump hasn’t ruled out unilateral action. With European foreign ministers meeting in Geneva today, markets are bracing for potential headlines.

🛢️ OIL & ENERGY WATCH

Brent crude slid 2.3% to $77.02, while WTI trades at $73.84. Despite today’s pullback, oil is still set for its third straight weekly gain—driven by fears that the conflict could expand and threaten key supply lines, including the Strait of Hormuz. Thursday’s lighter trading exaggerated moves, but energy names remain in play.

🏦 FED RECAP: STILL ON HOLD, STILL DATA-DRIVEN

The Fed held interest rates steady at 4.25–4.50%, marking the fourth straight hold. Chairman Powell emphasized the risk of “meaningful inflation” as new tariffs and geopolitical risk inflate costs.

Inflation forecast bumped to 3.0–3.1% (from 2.7%)
GDP outlook trimmed to 1.4%
Dot plot still shows two rate cuts this year, but the Fed made clear: it’s not locked in.

Powell’s tone: Strategic caution. “Foggy outlook” and inflation will dictate the next move. Markets shouldn’t assume cuts are automatic.

💡 MARKET TAKEAWAYS

Short-term clarity: No rate cuts now, possibly two this year—but watch inflation data.
Tariff inflation risk: Key for Fed path and for equity valuations.
Volatility rising: Geopolitics + inflation + energy = choppy markets. Stay nimble.

📈 STOCKS & SECTORS TO WATCH

Top Streaming Stocks (by volume & momentum):

NVIDIA, AppLovin, Spotify, Walt Disney, Take-Two Interactive

Large Cap Movers:

Tesla, NVIDIA, Invesco QQQ, Circle Internet Group, Coinbase

Growth Stock Momentum Picks:

Circle Internet, Welltower, BlackRock, Blueprint Medicines, Novo Nordisk, SpringWorks, Blackstone

🧱 M&A IN FOCUS: HOME DEPOT MOVES

Home Depot (HD) is reportedly bidding for GMS (GMS), joining a takeover race with Brad Jacobs’ QXO. GMS soared after hours on Wednesday, following QXO’s $5B unsolicited offer. HD’s move signals confidence in housing-related demand, even amid tariff-related macro uncertainty.

🤖 PROJECT CRYSTAL LAND: A U.S. AI SUPERCOMPLEX?

SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son is reportedly teaming with TSMC and the Trump Administration on a proposed $1 trillion U.S.-based AI manufacturing hub, dubbed Project Crystal Land. Designed to rival China’s Shenzhen, the massive complex would include industrial robotics, AI chip production, and is positioned as a cornerstone of U.S. tech independence.

💹 TECHNICAL ZONE – $QQQ

Another sideways week for the Nasdaq-100 ETF ($QQQ), closing flat at 528.99. Key levels:

Resistance: 540 (ATH), 534 intraday
Support: 522, 513, then psychological 500 — and a potential gap fill at 493

Stay nimble — we’re only ~2% away from all-time highs but sitting on fragile macro footing.

💰 COMMODITIES CHECK

Bitcoin: $104,500
Gold: $3,370/oz
Crude Oil: $73.70/bbl

📅 KEY ECONOMIC DATA TODAY

8:30 AM ET: Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun)
10:00 AM ET: U.S. Leading Index (May)
1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count
4:30 PM ET: Fed Balance Sheet Update

🧠 OP STRATEGY MODE ACTIVATED

Keep your focus on:

Small-cap oil stocks if this conflict escalates
Streaming and mega-cap growth names with strong technicals
And above all — stick with the OP systems that continue to guide us through chaos and clarity alike

We’ll see you in Chat and On-Demand sessions today. Let’s stay sharp and stack those gains.

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