U.S. Strikes Iran. Oil Gaps Up. Markets in Standby Mode.
📰 Markets Hover as Geopolitical Risk Intensifies
U.S. stock futures were modestly higher early Tuesday as traders weighed the fallout from the U.S. military’s weekend strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites, a dramatic escalation in the ongoing conflict with Tehran.
As of 5:20 AM ET:
- Dow Futures: flat
- S&P 500 Futures: +10 pts (+0.2%)
- Nasdaq Futures: +46 pts (+0.2%)
Wall Street closed lower on Friday as concerns grew over U.S. involvement in the Israel–Iran conflict. That overhang was partially lifted after President Trump confirmed direct U.S. strikes, which he had previously hinted might take up to two weeks to consider.
🌍 Iran’s Next Move: The World Waits
Tehran has not issued a formal military response yet but warned of “everlasting consequences.” Iranian media is reporting discussions around blocking the Strait of Hormuz — a key trade artery responsible for ~20% of global oil flow.
Other reports suggest potential retaliation could include targeting U.S. military bases in the region. Trump added fuel by floating the idea of regime change on social media, while Iran called him a “gambler” and hinted that more targets are now “on the table.”
Markets have found some short-term clarity in the U.S. taking decisive action, but headline risk remains extremely high.
🛢️ Oil Gaps, Then Pulls Back — More Upside Possible
- WTI Crude: Initially surged past $77/bbl, now trading around $75
- Brent Crude: $77.17/bbl (+0.2%)
- ING warns: Supply risk has “increased significantly” given potential Iranian retaliation and Hormuz blockade approval by Iran’s parliament
Expect continued momentum toward $80+ if tensions escalate further. Small-cap oil names should be on your radar, especially those with strong relative strength.
📊 Support & Resistance Levels for the Week
| Level Type | Key Levels |
|---|---|
| Support | 522 → 513 → 505 → 500 (psychological) |
| Resistance | 535 → 537 → 540 (ATH level) |
If geopolitical fears cool and market digests the situation, watch for $QQQ to continue its push toward 540.
🪙 Crypto & Commodities Snapshot
- Bitcoin: Fighting to hold $100K/coin
- XRP: Weekend entry looks strong — breakout brewing
- Gold: Trading near $3,370/oz — safe-haven flows remain steady
🧠 Senate’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” in Play
The Senate plans to vote this week on a massive tax-and-spending package that would extend 2017 Trump-era tax cuts, boost defense and border funding, and cut some entitlement spending.
However, some key GOP proposals may not survive the budget reconciliation rules, which means more headlines ahead that could drive sector-based swings (especially financials and defense).
🧠 Bottom Line from Team OP
Markets are sitting on edge — waiting for the next move from Tehran and listening closely to Fed commentary on rate path clarity.
As we noted, oil remains in play. Crypto strength (especially XRP) looks real. And $QQQ can still run — if the market digests geopolitical risk.
📣 We’ll see you in chat all day — let’s stack wisely.
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