📈 Futures Hold Steady as Ceasefire Holds and Powell Returns to Capitol Hill
U.S. stock futures hovered just above flat early Wednesday as traders processed two key forces: a fragile Israel-Iran ceasefire and more Fed commentary from Chair Jerome Powell.
As of 03:40 ET, Dow futures were up 33 points (+0.1%), S&P 500 futures were flat, and Nasdaq 100 futures ticked up 19 points (+0.1%). Tuesday’s rally was driven by optimism that, despite missile exchanges and tough talk, a ceasefire agreement brokered by President Trump will hold.
Powell, for his part, used his first day of testimony to re-emphasize a patient, data-dependent Fed. While a few officials have leaned dovish, the central bank remains cautious—especially with tariffs looming.
🧾 Tariff Watch:
The July expiration of the reciprocal tariff delay is fast approaching, and markets are on edge. The White House is scrambling to strike deals with multiple countries. Vital Knowledge put it bluntly: “Trade is the most acute risk facing markets, but investors remain confident the worst-case impact is the 10% base tariff.”
🇮🇱 Ceasefire Update: Trump’s Deal Still Holding
President Trump’s ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains intact, one day after the rivals said they would halt air strikes. Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff said negotiations with Tehran are “promising,” with hopes for a broader peace deal building.
Trump defended last weekend’s airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, calling them successful—but reports suggest Iran’s enrichment capabilities remain largely intact. Traders are watching this closely as a flare-up could again threaten oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
🛢 Oil Edges Up, Still Near Lows
Crude prices bounced modestly overnight. Brent rose 1.7% to $67.30, and WTI climbed 1.8% to $65.53, after Tuesday’s multi-week low closes. Despite the ceasefire, risk remains elevated in the energy space—but supply flows have yet to be disrupted.
🏛 Powell Returns for Day Two of Testimony
Today, Powell speaks before the Senate. His remarks yesterday framed the U.S. economy as “solid,” with unemployment steady at 4.2% and inflation trending down—though still above target. He flagged that new tariffs could reignite inflation pressure, explaining the Fed’s cautious approach to cutting rates, despite political pressure.
📦 FedEx Warning Signals Economic Volatility
FedEx stock dropped after-hours after guiding Q1 earnings below expectations. The company sees EPS of $3.40 to $4.00, short of the $4.06 consensus. CEO Raj Subramaniam called the global environment “volatile,” and noted Trump’s recent tariff move targeting low-cost Chinese retailers like Temu and Shein has hurt returns. FedEx withheld full-year guidance, citing uncertainty.
🧠 Market Structure & Key Levels:
We’re trading near all-time highs on QQQ (~540). If we break cleanly above this level, the next leg toward 600 could begin. Keep an eye on support at 513 and the key psychological 500 level—below that lies a gap to 493.
Bitcoin: $106,000
Gold: $3,340
📅 Today’s Key Economic Events (ET):
- 8:30 AM – 🇺🇸 Building Permits (May)
- 10:00 AM – 🇺🇸 New Home Sales (May)
- 10:00 AM – 🇺🇸 Fed Chair Powell Testifies (Senate)
- 10:30 AM – 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories
- 12:00 PM – 🇺🇸 5-Year Note Auction
💰 Yesterday’s Recap:
ALL SYSTEMS PAID.
- BABA and INTC chat plays were massive winners
- GG clocked over 100%
- Other systems printed consistently
We are STACKING in a big way for the first half of 2025. Keep showing up, keep executing. Let’s keep it going.
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📣 Reminder: Watch for Powell’s remarks and any headlines around tariffs. If volatility spikes, it’s opportunity—not fear.
Stack Your Gains.™
—Team OP
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