Good morning, OP Nation! Futures are flat as traders digest labor market data, the impact of Trump’s latest tariff hike, and prepare for a heavy-hitting earnings slate that includes $AVGO, $DOCU, and $LULU. Let’s break down what matters for today’s trading.
🧭 1. Futures Flat Ahead of Jobs Data & ECB Decision
As of 03:31 ET:
- Dow Futures: Flat
- S&P 500 Futures: Flat
- Nasdaq 100 Futures: Slightly red
Markets are in a wait-and-see mode as traders assess labor signals and a pending rate cut decision from the European Central Bank (ECB) later today.
🇺🇸 2. U.S. Labor Market Mixed – Claims, Payrolls & Productivity on Watch
Today’s focus is on the Initial Jobless Claims report at 8:30AM ET. Expectations are for a slight improvement:
- Forecast: 236K (vs. 240K prior)
Earlier in the week:
- ADP jobs came in light
- Services PMI missed expectations
- The Fed’s Beige Book noted slower activity and rising price pressures from tariffs
All this feeds into Friday’s big Nonfarm Payrolls report, with just 130,000 jobs expected (down from April’s 177K). Cooling labor demand could keep rate cut hopes alive — but we’ll need confirmation.
🧨 3. Tariffs Begin to Bite
Trump’s 50% steel and aluminum tariffs took effect yesterday. Markets are still optimistic about upcoming trade talks with nations before July’s expiration of the 90-day “Liberation Day” pause.
A potential Trump-Xi call this week could be a major market mover. For now, traders are weighing the inflationary drag vs. deal optimism.
🇪🇺 4. ECB Rate Cut on Deck
The European Central Bank is widely expected to cut rates by 25bps to 2.0% today — its eighth straight cut since June 2024.
- Eurozone CPI fell to 1.9% in May (below the ECB’s 2% target)
- Core inflation slowed to 2.3% from 2.7%
While the cut is priced in, debate may be more divided than markets expect. Watch for hawkish pushback as ECB officials balance stimulus with emerging inflation concerns.
💼 5. Earnings Spotlight: $AVGO, $DOCU, $LULU
- $AVGO (Broadcom):
Analysts expect clarity on AI chip demand amid macro uncertainty. CEO has forecasted $4.4B in Q2 AI chip revenue, led by hyperscaler orders. - $DOCU & $LULU also report after the bell — key sentiment gauges for enterprise spending and consumer strength.
Positive results could fuel tech continuation and support broader bullish sentiment.
🛢 6. Oil Recovers After Inventory-Driven Drop
- Brent: $65.17 (+0.5%)
- WTI: $63.09 (+0.4%)
Crude bounced after Wednesday’s drop, where:
- Oil inventories dropped by 4.3M barrels
- Gasoline inventories spiked 5.2M barrels
- Distillates rose 4.2M barrels
This has raised questions about demand in the U.S. — especially with summer travel season approaching.
📈 7. $QQQ Tech Index Approaching Breakout Levels
$QQQ closed at 529.84, with bulls now eyeing 530 and 540 as the final resistance zones before potential new all-time highs.
Key levels to watch:
- Resistance: 530 → 540
- Support: 522 → 517 → 510 → 500
- Below 500 opens gap fill toward 493
Strong earnings and tame economic data today could be the final push toward breakout highs.
🪙 8. Bitcoin & Gold Hold Near Highs
- Bitcoin: ~$105,000
- Gold: ~$3,400/oz
Both remain elevated amid global uncertainty and dovish central bank tone. Gold miners continue to hold strength — worthwhile to keep an eye on for swing setups.
📅 Today’s Key U.S. Economic Data (ET):
- 🇺🇸 8:30AM – Initial Jobless Claims
- 🇺🇸 8:30AM – Unit Labor Costs (Q1)
- 🇺🇸 8:30AM – Nonfarm Productivity (Q1)
- 🇺🇸 8:30AM – Trade Balance, Exports, Imports (Apr)
- 🇺🇸 1:00PM – Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2)
- 🇺🇸 1:30PM – FOMC’s Harker Speaks
- 🇺🇸 4:30PM – Fed’s Balance Sheet
📺 Secret Sauce Live Stream is today!
Need access? Email steve@optionsplayers.com
✅ Yesterday’s game plan crushed — $INTC LEAPS paid huge, and $QQQ strength kept bulls in control. More setups coming today based on data and earnings reactions.
Stay focused, trade what confirms, and let’s stack together.
— Team OptionsPlayers | Stack Your Gains™
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