OP Wire 7/10 (OP – Lite)

By Steve

⚠️ Thursday Market Outlook: Brazil Tariffs, Fed Commentary, and Relentless Tech Momentum

U.S. stock futures pointed lower Thursday as President Trump escalated his global tariff campaign—this time targeting Brazil. The Dow was down 125 points (-0.3%) at 03:42 ET, while the S&P 500 fell 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.2%, retracing modestly after Wednesday’s record-setting session.

🌎 Trump Tariffs Take Aim at Brazil and Copper

In a new front to his trade offensive, Trump announced a 50% tariff on all imports from Brazil, set to begin August 1. This sharp move follows a series of tariff warning letters sent globally, with Brazil receiving the steepest proposed rate so far.

Trump cited political motivations behind the action, criticizing Brazil’s treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro as “an international disgrace.” He also doubled down on a 50% tariff on imported copper, claiming it’s a matter of national security due to the metal’s role in U.S. defense, auto manufacturing, and infrastructure.

Though analysts say the Brazil move is more about politics than trade (Brazil is only the 15th-largest U.S. trade partner), it’s another layer of uncertainty for global markets.

📉 Tariffs Fuel Economic Concerns

Trump’s tariff spree continues to cloud the Fed’s path. The latest FOMC meeting minutes revealed that only “a couple” policymakers supported immediate rate cuts, with most preferring to wait and assess the inflationary effects of tariffs.

While Trump pushes for immediate easing—and has repeatedly called for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s resignation—Powell has stayed cautious, signaling a cut may come later in 2025 if inflation data softens.

Until then, the market remains stuck in a game of wait-and-see with the Fed, even as political pressure ramps up.

📊 Nvidia Briefly Hits $4 Trillion; QQQ Sets New High

Despite political noise, the tech sector continues to melt upward. On Wednesday, Nvidia (NVDA) surged 1.8% and briefly became the first company to hit a $4 trillion valuation, before settling at $3.97T. This helped push the $QQQ to another all-time high, closing at 556.25 (+0.25%), after tagging an intraday high of 557.63.

Tech bulls remain in full control, and as long as QQQ holds above 540 (former all-time high resistance), we remain in squeeze territory.

🥣 M&A Buzz: WK Kellogg + Ferrero?

Shares of WK Kellogg spiked in after-hours trading on news that Ferrero, the maker of Nutella and Ferrero Rocher, is nearing a $3 billion buyout. This would expand Ferrero’s U.S. footprint and put major cereal brands like Rice Krispies and Froot Loops under their umbrella.

🇹🇼 TSMC Crushes Estimates

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) posted $31.9B in Q2 sales, beating both internal and street expectations. AI chip demand continues to drive monster numbers, with Nvidia and Apple remaining key clients. The result adds more weight to the AI hardware bull case.

📅 Today’s Key Economic Events:

8:30 AM ET – Initial Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET – Continuing Jobless Claims
1:00 PM ET – 30-Year Bond Auction
1:15 PM ET – Fed’s Waller Speaks
2:30 PM ET – FOMC Member Daly Speaks
4:30 PM ET – Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

🧾 Don’t Forget: “Big Beautiful Bill” = Big Market Impacts

ICYMI in our OP feed, we detailed the full breakdown of the Big Beautiful Bill, which includes:

Massive deductions for business equipment & vehicles
Tip & overtime income tax relief (2025–2028)
Permanent QBI pass-through deduction
Repeal of Green Energy tax credits
$1,000 newborn savings accounts
IRS enforcement cuts

This legislation rewires the tax code to favor business reinvestment, small entrepreneurs, and traditional industries, while removing support for EVs, solar, and ESG-linked sectors. Expect long-term sector rotation as the market adjusts.

💬 In the OP Chat Room:

Big wins yesterday across the board — congrats to everyone who caught BABA and INTC moves.
BABA leaps are looking strong. Eyes on follow-through entries today.
Bitcoin is flirting with new highs around $111.3K, and gold trades at $3,330/oz.
Squeeze setups remain dominant—check the live watchlist and push through key levels with confidence.

🎯 Final Take:

Markets are absorbing political drama and rate uncertainty, but tech leadership and tax-driven tailwinds are keeping buyers in control. While tariffs may cause short-term volatility, we continue to find edge through structured plays and chart-based planning.

Stack smart. Trade disciplined. See you in chat.

If you want to get the plays of the day then signup for Gold, and get a FREE TRIAL