- Trump Set to Receive Republican Nomination Former President Donald Trump is expected to receive the Republican nomination at the 2024 National Convention in Milwaukee, just days after narrowly escaping an assassination attempt. Analysts believe this incident may boost his chances against President Biden, who faces internal party pressure to step aside. Both leaders called for calm over the weekend amid rising political tensions.
- Futures Rise with Earnings and Powell in Focus U.S. stock futures are up as investors anticipate a busy week of corporate earnings and remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. With more than 40 S&P 500 companies reporting, market watchers are keen to see if strong results will push indices higher. Powell’s interview at the Economic Club of Washington DC will be closely watched for hints about a potential rate cut in September.
- Goldman Sachs Leads Off Earnings Week The earnings season continues with Goldman Sachs reporting today, following strong results from Citigroup and JPMorgan last week. Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and Netflix are also set to release earnings, with expectations high for S&P 500 companies to show significant year-over-year growth driven by tech and AI optimism.
- China’s Economic Growth Slows in Q2 China’s economy grew by 4.7% in Q2, its slowest rate since Q1 2023, due to a prolonged property downturn. Industrial output and retail sales also slowed, increasing pressure on Beijing to introduce more stimulus measures. The focus is now on China’s third plenum, starting Monday, where new economic policies may be announced.
- Crude Prices Stable Despite Weak Chinese Data Crude prices remained stable, with WTI at $80.94 and Brent at $84.95 a barrel, as weak Chinese economic data balanced out political uncertainties. China’s crude oil imports fell 2.3% in H1 2024, reflecting sluggish fuel demand.
$SPY/$SPX-
Last week, the main watch was whether buyers can sustain the directional move away from the prior 2-week range. The most bullish scenario would be price showing acceptance of these higher levels, with no interest in retesting the prior breakout point. The main level of interest for that week was 5585, which signifies the 2-week range high and breakout point. If price can continue to sustain above 5585, it would target 5640, 5695, and 5750.”Price continued to show acceptance above 5585, with a weekly high being established at 5708. The aforementioned most bullish scenario played out with no retest of the prior breakout point and a new near-term range developing, indicating acceptance of the higher prices.
This past week was a great example of waiting for market structure and conditions to develop favorably before getting involved. The first half of the week was characterized by poor structure, resulting in very few A+ quality setups. This is typically a product of a market that continues to press all-time highs. Thursday’s sell helped to provide stronger structure and levels of interest to work with, which made for some favorable action on Thursday and Friday. Knowing when market structure and broad conditions are favorable is HUGE. If you spend all of your mental capital when structure is poor, then you will be spent and not have the confidence to trade once a better structure develops.
For this week, the main watch will be how price trades versus the recently established near-term range. The main level of interest will be 5625, which served as a significant area of support for the prior week. The main objective of buyers for this week is to continue to sustain 5625 as support. If it continues to hold, price can target 5690, 5750, and 5790. If price fails to hold 5625 as support, it can test the July 5th breakout point at 5585 and 5535.
Upside levels of interest: 5690, 5750, 5790
Downside levels of interest: 5625, 5585, 5535
Notable Economic Data
- Monday: Powell Speech
- Wednesday: Fed’s Beige Book
- Thursday: Jobless Claims
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