OP Wire 7/16 (OP – Lite)

  1. Cementing a September Rate Cut Confidence is growing that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September after Chairman Jerome Powell’s dovish comments on Monday. Powell noted that recent inflation data is moving in the right direction towards the Fed’s 2% target, suggesting progress in the second quarter. Markets now fully price in a September rate cut, with traders anticipating 68 basis points of easing this year.
  2. Futures Slip Ahead of Retail Sales Data U.S. stock futures dipped on Tuesday from record levels, as investors await retail sales data and bank earnings. The Dow Jones hit a record high on Monday, driven by optimism over a potential Republican president, which could lead to favorable tax and fiscal policies. Focus now shifts to U.S. retail sales data for June, expected to show a 0.3% decline due to high interest rates and prices.
  3. Trump Selects Vance as Running Mate Donald Trump received a warm welcome at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee after surviving an assassination attempt. Officially nominated as the 2024 presidential candidate, Trump announced Senator J.D. Vance as his running mate. Both Trump and Biden called for calm over the weekend, with Biden dismissing concerns about his mental health and reiterating his bid for reelection.
  4. More Bank Earnings Bank earnings continue to be in focus, with reports from Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and Charles Schwab due. Goldman Sachs reported doubled profits in Q2, driven by strong debt underwriting and fixed-income trading. Analysts expect the bull market to broaden if earnings outperform expectations, fueled by optimism over future rate cuts.
  5. Bitcoin in Demand Bitcoin rose on Tuesday, buoyed by the prospect of friendlier crypto regulations under a potential second term for Trump. The former president’s support for the crypto industry contrasts with recent crackdowns by the SEC and DOJ. This optimism helped Bitcoin rebound despite concerns over selling pressure from the defunct crypto exchange Mt. Gox.

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Today I’ll be looking to scalp AAPL Puts and SPX while looking for more weakness in BTC

SBUX may be ready to take LEAPS on as it’s about to reach a major support. See you all in chat where the plays have even awesome!

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