📈 Futures Push Higher – Trade Deal & Earnings in Focus
U.S. stock futures are on the rise this morning following optimism around a newly announced U.S.-Japan trade agreement, which imposes a 15% tariff — lower than the 25% originally outlined by Trump. The White House has called this deal “massive” as it strengthens U.S.-Japan trade ties and brings $550 billion in Japanese investments stateside.
As of 03:38 ET, Dow futures were up +137 points (+0.3%), S&P 500 futures added +17 points (+0.3%), and Nasdaq 100 futures gained +26 points (+0.1%).
Tuesday’s session ended mixed as investors weighed fresh corporate earnings. General Motors (NYSE:GM) sank after reporting Q2 income down more than a third, largely due to a $1B hit from tariffs. Despite that, tech stocks found support on optimism around ongoing AI investment momentum.
🇺🇸 U.S.-Japan Trade Pact
President Trump announced that Japan will face a 15% tariff under the new deal while opening its markets to U.S. cars, trucks, rice, and agricultural goods.
- Japan will invest $550 billion in the U.S., with 90% of profits flowing to the U.S.
- While lower than the initially planned 25%, the tariff still deviates from Tokyo’s request for full exemption.
Analysts at Capital Economics said, “The trade deal with the U.S. announced today removes a key downside risk to Japan’s economy… we estimate the net effect will reduce average tariff rates faced by Japanese exporters in the U.S. by around one percentage point.”
💻 Alphabet & Tesla Earnings After-Hours
Markets are looking toward Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) as the first of the “Magnificent 7” to report this earnings season.
- Alphabet: Investors want clarity on AI spending and how Google plans to defend its search and ad businesses from AI competition. Vital Knowledge notes mixed sentiment, with regulatory pressures and AI fears battling strong growth tailwinds.
- Tesla: Analysts remain concerned about falling deliveries and the loss of solar/EV tax credits from Trump’s new fiscal bill. TSLA is down more than 12% YTD, though hopes for future revenue from robotics and autonomous tech continue to support valuations.
📊 Texas Instruments Slides Despite Solid Quarter
Texas Instruments (NASDAQ:TXN) posted Q2 revenue of $4.45B (up 16% Y/Y, above estimates), with EPS of $1.41, but shares dropped on a soft Q3 forecast (revenue $4.45B–$4.80B vs. $4.59B expected). CEO Haviv Ilan noted a shallow recovery in automotive demand as tariffs and geopolitics disrupt supply chains.
🥇 Gold & Crypto Update
- Gold dipped as the trade deal lifted risk appetite, now trading around $3,430/oz, still within $100 of April’s record high.
- Silver trades at $39.6/oz.
- Bitcoin remains near $119K/coin, consolidating near all-time highs.
📊 Market Levels & Sentiment
The $QQQ tech index closed at 561.25 (-0.52%), but remains comfortably above the key 540 pivot. A strong round of earnings from $T (premarket) and $GOOG, $TSLA, $IBM (after-hours) could push us into further price discovery.
📅 Today’s Key Data (ET):
- 🇺🇸 Existing Home Sales (Jun) – 10AM
- 🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories – 10:30AM
- 🇺🇸 20Y Bond Auction – 1PM
🎯 OP Action Plan
Today’s market action will revolve around earnings results and trade headlines. Watch for tech earnings to set the tone for QQQ.
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