U.S. stock futures edged lower early Monday, with investors digesting President Trump’s latest tariff rhetoric, trade deadlines, and geopolitical tension, while tech indices like $QQQ hover at record highs.
As of 03:30 ET (07:30 GMT):
- Dow Futures fell by 149 points (-0.3%)
- S&P 500 Futures declined by 31 points (-0.5%)
- Nasdaq 100 Futures dropped by 126 points (-0.5%)
Markets were closed on Friday in observance of Independence Day, but July remains historically strong for equities. Over the past two decades, the S&P 500 has averaged a 2.5% gain in July, suggesting seasonality is a bullish backdrop—though macro uncertainty may cloud that trend this year.
⚠️ Trump Tariff Watch: All Eyes on July 9
President Trump confirmed that letters will begin going out to U.S. trade partners notifying them of new tariff rates. There remains confusion on timing: while the 90-day pause ends July 9, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick clarified tariffs will officially begin August 1, though Trump believes “most deals will be done by July 9.”
Preliminary trade agreements have already been reached with the UK, Vietnam, and China, but uncertainty looms for the rest. Trump has floated tariff increases ranging from 10% to potentially 70% for non-compliant nations. ING analysts noted that deals, extensions, or sudden hikes are all still on the table.
Further escalating tensions, Trump issued a social media decree:
“Any Country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff. There will be no exceptions to this policy.”
The BRICS bloc (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) expanded in 2024 to include Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and UAE. Trump has labeled their anti-dollar ambitions—such as their shelved BRICS currency proposal—as hostile to U.S. interests.
🧨 Trump vs. Musk: Political Feud Escalates
Trump took aim at Elon Musk, who announced plans to launch a third political party—The America Party. Once a key Trump backer, Musk has since criticized Trump’s sweeping fiscal policy, including the EV mandate’s removal in the new tax package.
Trump posted:
“Saddened to watch Elon Musk go completely ‘off the rails’.”
🛢 Oil Choppy After OPEC+ Output Hike
Crude prices were mixed following news that OPEC+ will increase production by 548,000 barrels/day in August, outpacing prior monthly hikes of 411,000 bpd.
- Brent slipped 0.1% to $68.25/barrel
- WTI ticked up 0.1% to $66.56/barrel
Another 548,000 bpd hike is on the table for September, pending review at the August 3 OPEC+ meeting.
This marks a continued unwind of the 2.2 million bpd voluntary cuts led by Saudi Arabia and Russia earlier this year.
💹 Technical Landscape: All Eyes on 23000
We begin the week with $QQQ at all-time highs, closing Thursday at 556.22 (+0.98%), just shy of the intraday high of 557.2. The bulls remain firmly in control unless they lose grip on the 540 level. Old resistance could now become new support, with 550 acting as a critical short-term level.
Bitcoin is trading near $110,000, while Gold holds around $3,320/oz—signaling global investors continue hedging against policy and currency risks.
Meanwhile, buyers remain in charge of the broader market tape, with last week’s high at 23102.5. But summer doldrums are real, with tight ranges and low volume.
🔍 This Week’s Tactical Focus:
- Psych level at 23000: Holding above here favors continued upside.
- Upside Targets: 23500
- Downside Risk: 22600 → 22400 → 22000
- A break below 22600 would represent a notable shift in market character.
🗓 This Week’s Key Events
📊 Monday
- Fed’s Balance Sheet (4:30PM ET)
📄 Wednesday
- FOMC Minutes release – Key insights into Fed rate trajectory
💼 Thursday
- Jobless Claims
- Notable Earnings: Delta Air Lines ($DAL)
👥 Community Note
We’ll be watching for continued strength in tech, especially QQQ, and whether SPX can reclaim upside momentum amid rising tariff tensions. With low-volume trading expected, price discovery may take time—so stay sharp and tactical.
See you all in chat. Let’s stack gains.
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