OP Wire 8/12 (OP – Lite)

By Steve

CPI Holds Steady, Rate Cut Bets Rise

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-over-year in July, matching June’s pace and coming in cooler than economists’ forecast of 2.8%.

On a month-over-month basis, CPI climbed 0.2%, in-line with estimates and down from 0.3% in June.

Core CPI—which excludes volatile food and energy—rose 3.1% YoY (vs. 2.9% in June and 3.0% expected) and 0.3% MoM (up from 0.2%).

Traders were watching closely, knowing a softer inflation print could pave the way for a 25 bps Fed rate cut next month. Following the release, rate cut odds for September jumped to ~90% from 86% a day earlier, supported by July’s weak jobs report and downward revisions to May and June payrolls.

Several Fed policymakers have recently signaled a growing willingness to cut rates, citing both labor market weakness and the potential inflationary impact of President Trump’s aggressive trade policies.

📈 Market Snapshot

$QQQ closed yesterday at 572.85 (-0.3%), still firmly in bullish territory. Holding 540 keeps the long-term bullish pivot intact—any pullbacks here are more about volatility than trend reversal.
Trump has delayed Chinese tariffs for another 90 days, adding mixed signals to trade war narratives.
Bitcoin: ~$119K
Gold: ~$3,400/oz
Silver: ~$37.90/oz

🗓️ Key Data Today

🇺🇸 OPEC Monthly Report – 7:00 AM ET
🇺🇸 Core CPI (Jul) – 8:30 AM ET
🇺🇸 CPI (Jul) – 8:30 AM ET
🇺🇸 WASDE Report – 12:00 PM ET
🇺🇸 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook – 12:00 PM ET
🇺🇸 Federal Budget Balance (Jul) – 2:00 PM ET
🇺🇸 API Weekly Crude Oil Stock – 4:30 PM ET

🔥 OP Trade Watch – INTC Melt-Up Potential
Following yesterday’s high-profile meeting between Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan and President Trump, both sides have committed to strengthening ties and aligning on U.S. semiconductor leadership.

With INTC still trading below book value and now enjoying renewed political and strategic support, OptionsPlayers sees potential for a melt-up move. A volume surge and breakout over resistance could confirm bullish momentum.

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OP Wire 8/12 (OP – Lite)

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