OP Wire 8/18 (OP – Lite)

By Steve

1. Futures Muted

U.S. stock futures are subdued this morning as traders look ahead to a week packed with catalysts. By 03:23 ET, Dow futures -97 pts (-0.2%), S&P 500 -7 pts (-0.1%), and Nasdaq 100 flat.

Friday’s session ended mixed — the Dow notched fresh intra-day highs, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pulled backon weakness in tech, financials, industrials, and utilities.

2. Fed in Focus – FOMC Minutes & Powell at Jackson Hole

On Wednesday, the Fed releases minutes from the July meeting, where rates were held steady at 4.25%–4.50%. Notably, Fed Gov. Waller and Vice Chair Bowman dissented, pushing for a cut — the first split decision in decades.

Recent data: weaker-than-expected job growth + downward revisions, alongside stronger retail sales and hotter PPI.
Mixed signals = a tricky backdrop for Powell’s Jackson Hole speech Friday, with markets still pricing in a 25 bps cut in September.
Politics: Trump’s firing of the U.S. statistics commissioner raised doubts on data reliability, adding uncertainty to the Fed’s backdrop.

3. Ukraine/Geopolitics

Ukrainian President Zelensky meets Trump in Washington today with European leaders at his side. The goal: outline a potential peace deal.

Concern: Trump could push terms seen as favorable to Russia (such as ceding parts of Donetsk).
Analysts note the Alaska Trump-Putin talks produced no major surprises — no ceasefire, no secondary tariffs on China.
Markets remain in a wait-and-see mode, as the situation stays highly fluid.

4. Earnings Spotlight – Palo Alto Networks (PANW)

After the bell, Palo Alto Networks (PANW) reports fiscal Q4:

EPS est. $0.89 on rev. $2.5B.
First report post–$25B CyberArk acquisition (largest in company history).
Analysts bullish on AI-driven cybersecurity demand but cautious on integration risk.

This could be the key directional driver for QQQ into Tuesday’s session.

5. Gold Rises

Spot gold +0.6% to $3,355/oz, October futures +0.5% to $3,400/oz.

Safe-haven flows on Ukraine headlines + Fed uncertainty ahead of Jackson Hole.
Dollar softer as markets keep bets on a September rate cut.

Tech & Levels Watch

$QQQ closed last week 577.34 (-0.34%), small bump overnight.
- Key supports: 574 → 565–560 → long-term pivot 540.
- Break below 574 could open room for a retest lower.
NQ: Last week’s expansion through 23,845 highs was followed by compressed, choppy trading. Buyers remain in control unless last week’s low (~22,840) fails.

Crypto/Commodities: BTC ~$116K, Gold ~$3,400/oz, Silver ~$38.2/oz.

Market-Moving Data This Week

Wed: FOMC Minutes
Thu: Jobless Claims
Fri: Jackson Hole Symposium

OP Takeaway

Choppy summer trading continues — slow price action, lighter volume. Stick to your plan, know your levels, and stay nimble around Fed/Ukraine headlines.

👉 Buying the dip on INTC. See you in chat.

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