Today marks a crucial moment for the markets as Jerome Powell takes center stage at the FOMC press conference to address the interest rate decision, economic projections, and the broader policy outlook. Traders and investors have been eagerly awaiting this event, as it will determine whether the current short-term reversal gains traction or if the medium-term pullback deepens.
Market Expectations & Fed Outlook
Markets have priced in approximately 60 basis points of rate cuts this year, but several Federal Reserve officials have signaled caution, emphasizing that they want to see the impact of tariffs on economic data before making any adjustments.
Additionally, concerns are mounting over President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, which have already begun to impact economic activity, as evidenced by recent soft economic data. Adding to the uncertainty, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned over the weekend that there are “no guarantees” the U.S. economy will avoid a recession this year.
Key Levels to Watch in the Market
- $QQQ closed at 474.54, still well below the 200-day moving average at 492.63.
- A ~3.8% rally is needed to reclaim this critical level and shift sentiment back to bullish.
- Beyond that, bulls need to push through 500 (psychological level), 502 (initial pivot), and 515 (long-term pivot)to fully regain control.
If these conditions are met, we expect strength in squeeze candidates, as broader market pressure will ease.
On the downside, bulls must hold key support levels at 472, 468, and 466—failure to do so could extend the correction to 450.
For now, OptionsPlayers remains focused on catalyst-driven plays, including:
✅ NVDA’s GTC quantum event hype run-up
✅ The soaring price of Gold
Today’s Key Economic Events
📊 9:30 AM ET – Crude Oil Inventories
📊 2:00 PM ET – Fed Interest Rate Decision
📊 2:00 PM ET – FOMC Economic Projections
📊 2:00 PM ET – FOMC Statement
📊 2:00 PM ET – Interest Rate Projections (Short & Long Term)
📊 2:30 PM ET – FOMC Press Conference
Market Action Points
📙 Breakdown Point: If price falls below this level, momentum weakens, shorts gain confidence, and squeeze probability decreases.
📙 Breakout Point: If price moves above this level, momentum increases, shorts get pressured to cover, and the probability of a squeeze rises—especially with a strong catalyst.
Oil Prices Drop on Russia-Ukraine De-escalation
Oil prices declined Wednesday, extending Tuesday’s losses, after Russia agreed to halt attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities for 30 days. This decision followed a phone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, which could lead to increased Russian oil supply in global markets.
🔻 Brent crude futures fell 0.8% to $70.03 per barrel
🔻 West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped 0.8% to $66.22 per barrel
While this 30-day agreement is not a full ceasefire, it represents a significant step toward easing tensions and protecting critical energy infrastructure.
Stock Watchlist & Analysis
Disney ($DIS) – Strong Growth Outlook
📌 Analyst Ratings & Price Targets
- Average 12-month price target: $125.79 (+26.61% upside)
- High estimate: $147
- Low estimate: $95
- Consensus rating: “Strong Buy”
- 68% Buy | 29% Hold | 3% Sell
📌 Key Technical Levels
- Support: $98.64
- Resistance: $99.89
- Major resistance zone: $113.80 – $115.23
📌 Financial Performance
- Q1 2025 earnings: $1.76 per share (+44%)
- Revenue: $24.69 billion (+5%)
- Streaming revenue: $6 billion (+9%) – now profitable
- Next earnings report: May 7, 2025
📌 Recent Developments
- Stock up 24% YTD – best performance since 2020
- New price targets: $135 – $140
- Projected growth:
- High-single-digit EPS growth in 2025
- Double-digit EPS growth in 2026 & 2027
- Strong theme park & streaming revenue
OptionsPlayers Take: 🔥 We’re long and strong on Disney, loading up on LEAPS! 🔥
Intel ($INTC) – Bullish Catalysts in Play
📌 Valuation & Dividend
- Forward P/E ratio: ~25
- Dividend yield: 1.04% (Annual payout: $0.37 per share)
📌 Support & Resistance Levels
- Support: $25.43, $24.85, $24.27
- Resistance: $26.40, $26.98, $27.56
📌 Next Earnings Date
- April 24, 2025
📌 Technical Indicators
- Trading above 50-day moving average → Bullish trend
📌 Bullish Potential Catalysts
1️⃣ Leadership Change
- New CEO Lip-Bu Tan aims to revitalize Intel, with plans to streamline operations and restructure its foundry business.
2️⃣ Strategic Partnerships - Speculation of collaboration with TSMC could boost Intel’s foundry services.
3️⃣ Valuation Opportunity - Forward P/E of 21 presents an attractive entry point.
4️⃣ Foundry Business Restructuring - Addressing foundry losses could serve as a massive catalyst for Intel’s stock.
OptionsPlayers Take: 🔥 We’re long and strong on Intel, with targets well above $30! 🔥
Final Thoughts
With the FOMC decision, tariff concerns, and recession fears looming, today’s events will set the tone for the coming weeks. We’ll be watching key technical levels, market reactions, and high-probability trades based on fundamentals and catalysts.
💡 Stay sharp, stay disciplined, and let’s stack those gains! 💡
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