🏔 Jackson Hole Symposium Begins
The Fed’s Jackson Hole event kicks off today, drawing global central bankers to Wyoming.
- Key focus: Jerome Powell’s Friday speech — his last as Fed Chair.
- Markets are searching for clues on a possible September rate cut after weaker jobs data.
- Odds of a 25 bps cut on Sept 17 sit at ~80%.
- Powell’s tone could frame how his tenure is remembered, especially under heavy criticism from President Trump, who’s been pushing for cuts and targeting Fed officials.
📉 U.S. Futures Steady Pre-Market
Futures trade tight as traders eye jobless claims and Powell’s words later this week.
- As of 3AM ET: Dow +50 pts, Nasdaq +12, S&P -1.
- The S&P 500 is on a 4-day losing streak, weighed by tech.
- Fed minutes showed most policymakers are still cautious on labor + inflation.
- Jobless claims, Philly Fed data, and housing numbers hit later this morning.
🛒 Walmart Earnings – Consumer Barometer
Walmart ($WMT) reports Q2 earnings before the bell.
- Street expects EPS $0.74 (+11% YoY) on revenue of $176B (+4%).
- WMT has beaten earnings 11 straight quarters.
- With inflation and tariffs in play, management commentary on consumer demand trends will be critical.
- Retail peers: HD steady earlier this week, TGT slumped yesterday.
🤖 Meta Pauses AI Hiring
Meta ($META) is slowing its AI recruitment spree, after budgeting ~$72B this year.
- The company says it’s just “organizational planning,” but investors are wary of the massive AI spending burn rate.
- MIT report this week: 95% of AI ventures are unprofitable — fueling skepticism on returns.
- AI enthusiasm remains hot, but the pause highlights shareholder concern over cost vs reward.
🛢 Crude Oil Higher on U.S. Demand
Energy markets continue their rebound.
- WTI $63.22 (+0.8%) | Brent $67.30 (+0.3%).
- U.S. crude stockpiles fell 6M barrels, gasoline inventories down 2.7M — stronger than expected demand.
- Summer travel season is holding steady, offsetting global slowdown concerns.
- Peace progress in Ukraine could pressure prices, but sanctions on Russia remain a floor.
⚡️ Market Recap & What’s Next
Yesterday, $QQQ opened at 568.33 then dropped fast to 558.64 intraday, before partially rebounding — tech and tariffs driving volatility.
- Key Level: $QQQ holding 540 remains crucial for bulls.
- Bitcoin: $114,000/coin
- Gold: $3,380/oz
- Silver: $37.90/oz
Today’s Key Data Releases (ET):
- 7:30 – Fed’s Bostic speaks
- 8:30 – Philly Fed Mfg. + Employment Index
- 8:30 – Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims
- 9:45 – S&P Global PMI (Mfg., Services, Composite)
- 10:00 – Existing Home Sales + Leading Index
- 1:00 – 30Y TIPS Auction
- 4:30 – Fed Balance Sheet
See you all in chat for live trade setups.
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