OP Wire 9/10 (OP – Lite)

By Steve

📈 Markets Push Higher on Fed Cut Hopes

The major indexes logged fresh record closes yesterday as traders kept leaning into the idea that a Fed rate cut is coming next week. A sharp downward revision to jobs data suggested the labor market was cooling even before Trump rolled out his tariff blitz, reinforcing the case for easing.

FedWatch now shows:

25bp cut odds: Fully priced in
50bp cut odds: Rising, but still secondary

Treasury yields moved higher even as rate-cut bets held firm—highlighting the market’s tug-of-war between inflation and employment.

🏭 PPI & CPI Next Up

Today’s PPI (Aug) hits premarket, with CPI to follow tomorrow. Economists expect PPI to stay sticky at +3.3% YoY.

The Fed’s dual mandate is stretched: slowing jobs vs. stubborn prices. Thursday’s CPI print will be key for traders gauging how aggressive the Fed can be on cuts.

💡 Earnings Moves

Oracle (ORCL) exploded +28% premarket on a monster AI-fueled outlook. MultiCloud DB revenue surged +1,529%—yes, that’s real. OCI booked revenue is forecast to surpass $500B, showing insane demand for its low-cost AI offerings.
GameStop (GME) jumped nearly +6% premarket after surprising Q2 strength with revenue up 22% YoY to $972M.
Apple (AAPL) slipped post-event. The iPhone 17 lineup was unveiled, with the ultrathin “iPhone Air” ($999) replacing the Plus model. The Pro now starts at $1,099, while the base 17 stays at $799. Apple also refreshed Watch & AirPods.

🛢 Crude Oil Rises on Geopolitical Tensions

Brent: +0.6% → $66.78
WTI: +0.6% → $63.03

Drivers:

Israeli strikes on Hamas leadership in Doha, threatening peace talks.
Trump pressing EU to slap steep tariffs on India/China for buying Russian oil.
Poland shooting down Russian drones over its territory, calling it an “act of aggression.”

Global supply pressure is back on the table, adding a bid under crude.

📊 Market Recap & Levels

QQQ: 580.51 (+0.28%), aiming for new ATH above 583.32 overnight.
Bitcoin: ~$111.6K
Gold: ~$3,680/oz
Silver: ~$41.8/oz

📅 Today’s Key Data

🇺🇸 PPI (Aug) – 8:30 AM ET
🇺🇸 Core PPI (Aug) – 8:30 AM ET
🇺🇸 Crude Oil Inventories – 10:30 AM ET
🇺🇸 Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) – 1 PM ET
🇺🇸 10Y Note Auction – 1 PM ET

🔥 OP Action
Congrats to all who jumped on ORCL after our chat call a couple weeks back—insane gains!

It’s Secret Sauce Livestream Day—don’t miss it. See you all in chat.

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