OP Wire 9/29 (OP – Lite)

By Steve

Futures Outlook & Market Recap

U.S. indices closed last session higher after inflation data landed mostly in line with expectations. Still, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq snapped three-week win streaks, finishing lower for the week overall.

Key Focus: Nonfarm Payrolls & Government Shutdown Risk

🔥 Nonfarm Payrolls Friday – Traders are watching closely. The Fed has made it clear that slowing jobs is now the priority over sticky inflation. September payrolls are expected at 51,000 vs. 22,000 in August, with unemployment steady at 4.3%.

A weaker print (<75K) likely keeps the Fed on track for a cut at the October 29th meeting.
A stronger number (>115K) alongside PCE just under 3% could push Powell to pause.

Meanwhile, traders are pricing in about 40 bps of easing into year-end—down from earlier expectations.

🚨 Government Shutdown Looming – If Congress fails to pass a stopgap bill, we could see the 15th partial shutdown since 1981. This would also risk delaying Friday’s jobs report release. Party leaders are set to meet President Trump today to hammer out a deal.

Sector & Stock Watch

Carnival Corp (CCL) reports Monday. Cruise demand has surged, lifting margins to near 20-year highs and pushing shares up 22% YTD. Street expects Q3 EPS at $1.32.
Gold surged to fresh records above $3,800/oz, fueled by safe-haven demand and Fed easing bets.
Oil slipped on resumed Kurdistan exports + OPEC+ supply boost plans. Brent at $68.17, WTI at $64.61.

Technicals: NQ & $QQQ

Last week NQ tagged 25,000, then pulled back to the 38% retrace — classic profit-taking at psychological resistance. As long as buyers defend that level, structure remains bullish. A deeper test to 24,000 (50% retrace) is possible if support fails.
Overnight, $QQQ is pushing toward 600, keeping bears on the ropes. Holding 580 is key for medium-term strength.

Global Backdrop

⚠️ Geopolitical risks remain in focus with conflicts in the Middle East and Europe, but the near-term market driver remains Fed policy.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin trades near $111.7K, Silver at $47/oz, and Gold at record highs.

This Week’s Market-Moving Data

Today:

Fed Waller speaks (7:30AM ET)
Pending Home Sales (10AM ET)
Williams (1:30PM), Bostic (6PM)

Rest of Week:

Tue: JOLTS
Wed: ADP Employment
Thu: Jobless Claims
Fri: Nonfarm Payrolls

✅ Reminder: Today is Secret Sauce Live Stream day. Stack well, trade disciplined, and we’ll see you all in chat.

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