OP Wire 9/8 (OP – Lite)

By Steve

📉 Markets Pull Back on Jobs Data

Wall Street retreated Friday after a softer-than-expected August nonfarm payrolls confirmed the labor market slowdown.

Despite the pullback, the data all but locked in a Fed rate cut at the upcoming Sept 16–17 FOMC meeting. Futures are pricing:

91.7% chance of a 25bp cut
8.3% chance of a 50bp cut

Even with Friday’s dip, the S&P 500 remains just shy of its all-time high from Thursday.

🔥 This Week’s Focus: CPI & Inflation Risks
All eyes now turn to Thursday’s August CPI print. Expectations:

Prices +2.9% YoY (vs. +2.7% in July)
Tariff-driven inflation effects likely to show up

The Fed has warned that Trump’s tariffs could delay future cuts, even if September is basically in the bag. PPI inflation data also hits this week.

🌍 Global Politics in Motion

France: PM Bayrou faces a confidence vote—likely defeat could force resignation and inject uncertainty into Macron’s fiscal push.
Japan: PM Ishiba resigns weeks after LDP’s upper house loss, opening the door to a leadership struggle despite just sealing a U.S. trade deal.

🛢 Crude Oil Surges
OPEC+ agreed to a much smaller October output hike of +137,000 bpd (vs. +555k and +411k in earlier months).

Brent +2% → $66.79
WTI +2% → $63.13

Saudi Arabia continues to balance market share with price stability.

📊 Market Levels & Assets

$QQQ closed 576.06 (+0.14%), less than 1% off ATH 583.32.
Support near 560—above that, bulls firmly in control.
Bitcoin: ~$111.1K
Gold: ~$3,640/oz
Silver: ~$41.6/oz

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OP Wire 9/8 (OP – Lite)

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