📊 Futures Steady Ahead of Data Surge & Earnings Rush
U.S. stock futures are treading water this morning as traders gear up for a massive slate of economic data and another wave of earnings. As of 03:30 ET, Dow and S&P 500 futures were flat, while Nasdaq 100 futures ticked up +28 points (+0.1%).
Yesterday saw a whipsaw session: markets dipped on a report that Trump planned to fire Fed Chair Powell… then ripped higher after Trump denied it. Analysts noted that the market seems more desensitized to these kinds of “Fed shakeup” headlines. That said, Powell isn’t in the clear — Trump later said he’d “love” to see him resign, even though his term runs through May 2026.
📚 Beige Book Shows Growth… But Tariff Warnings Loom
The Fed’s Beige Book showed that U.S. economic activity accelerated into early July, but businesses remain cautious. Firms are bracing for persistent price pressures and possible consumer inflation into late summer. All 12 Fed districts noted the effects of tariffs — some seeing higher costs, others reshoring gains.
💣 Tariff Tensions: No Let-Up
Tariff headlines are dominating sentiment:
- Trump confirmed 200% pharma tariffs are coming by month-end.
- A 19% tariff on Indonesian goods was announced as part of a trade deal.
- Framework trade deals are in place with China, UK, and Vietnam, but the August 1 reciprocal tariff deadline is firm, per the White House. No more delays expected.
📈 Netflix, TSMC Headline Earnings
🔹 Netflix (NFLX) reports after the bell. Analysts expect strong results but worry the stock may have run too hot into the print.
🔹 TSMC crushed Q2:
- Net income +61% Y/Y to $13.52B
- Revenue up 39%
- AI demand for 3nm & 5nm chips was the major driver
- Caution was flagged for Q4 due to tariff risks
🔹 Other earnings due today:
GE Aerospace, PepsiCo, Elevance Health, Cintas
💡 Powell Drama Overshadows the Fed
Trump walked back his alleged intent to fire Powell, but made clear he’s not thrilled with the Fed. While he denied the earlier report, he said Powell’s position is “highly unlikely” to be terminated for fraud — referencing GOP complaints over the Fed’s $2.5B HQ renovation. Bottom line: Powell says he’s staying put. Trump says he’s not so sure. The markets? Staying edgy.
🧠 Economic Data Blitz Incoming
Today’s data has the potential to move the tape big in premarket. Watch for reactions to:
- Retail Sales & Core Retail Sales (Jun) – Consumer spending pulse check
- Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims – Labor conditions
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) – Closely watched GDP read
- Import/Export Price Indexes, Inventories, Philly Fed – Macro insight
🧾 Full Calendar (ET):
- 🇺🇸 Core Retail Sales (Jun) – 8:30AM
- 🇺🇸 Retail Sales (Jun) – 8:30AM
- 🇺🇸 Philly Fed Index & Employment (Jul) – 8:30AM
- 🇺🇸 Jobless Claims – 8:30AM
- 🇺🇸 Import/Export Prices (Jun) – 8:30AM
- 🇺🇸 Retail Inventories Ex Auto (May) – 10AM
- 🇺🇸 Business Inventories (May) – 10AM
- 🇺🇸 FOMC Daly speaks – 12:45PM
- 🇺🇸 Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) – 1PM
- 🇺🇸 Fed Waller speaks – 6:30PM
📊 QQQ Holding Uptrend | Crypto & Gold Stay Hot
- $QQQ closed at 557.29 (+0.1%) after an intraday reversal from 551.56. Bulls remain firmly in control as long as 540 holds as support.
- Bitcoin: ~$118K — grinding near ATHs
- Gold: ~$3,350/oz — consolidating near highs
🧠 Trading Thoughts
I’ll be looking to add to my INTC March call position and also short TSLA into strength. Tariff themes, earnings, and today’s data could all shift momentum quickly, so stay sharp.
🎉 Shoutout to all AC&I, GG, Secret Sauce, and swing trade chat players — the execution has been phenomenal. Let’s keep stacking.
See you all in Chat.
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